We're riding high after another 3-0 sweep on Thursday afternoon. That runs our record to a new season high of 100-70. The heaters are always nice when they happen, but a key to MLB betting is to stay humble and keep grinding.
So, with that in mind, let's dive into the Friday card. As usual, we are treated to 15 games and I found 5 strikeout props that I absolutely love. Best of luck and enjoy the weekend, sports betting compadres!
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How about a little day baseball on a Friday to kick off the weekend? This is obviously juicier than I would like, as it barely makes my -150 or less cutoff for player props. Assad has been a nice surprise for the North Siders in 2024.
The 26-year-old righty has an unbelievably low ERA of just 2.17 this season, mainly because he's gotten better at hitting his spots with the fastball. It also helps that Assad has 6 pitches that he uses to keep hitters off balance.
Sure, Assad's K-rate only ranks out as average (22.4%) but I see no reason why he can't rack up 5 or 6 Ks against Cincy. The Reds are still among the league leaders in strikeouts against righties. Let's start the day off with an Over at Wrigley!
I disagree sharply with this line and can't believe that it's at plus money. Yes, I know that Berrios's K-rate is down this season at only 20%. However, his Chase Rate is still very good, as it ranks in the 69th percentile.
That high of a Chase Rate tells me that Berrios's 94 mph sinker is still highly effective. He shouldn't have any trouble carving up this below-average Pittsburgh lineup. The P'Rats have 4 everyday players with K-rates above 24%.
Looking at Berrios's lifetime numbers against this Pirates lineup makes me like this plus money Over even more. Berrios has a K-rate of 30.5% against these boys in his career. Give me another Over!
Just when you thought it would be all Overs today, we throw in a plus money Under just to keep things interesting. Have I lost my mind? It's quite possible! It wouldn't be the first time!
I get that it's scary to play an Under on such a low K number, but hear me out. Sanchez rarely works deep into ball games and his K rate of only 11.6% puts him in the 2nd percentile. That means that 98% of MLB pitchers strike out folks more regularly than Sanchez.
Sanchez's Whiff Rate is also the worst in baseball. Pair that up against a Texas lineup that has one of the lowest K-rates in MLB against righties and we have a recipe for an Under. Give me some more plus money!
Maybe I'm just a sucker for plus money today, but sign me up! Lopez has been one of the most consistent starts on this Braves squad and he gets a favorable matchup against a very K-happy A's team.
Just how much does Oakland strike out? They have 4 everyday players with K-rates over 24%. That may not sound like a lot, but remember that a lot of Oakland's platoon/bench players strike out at a high rate as well.
Lopez has a career K-rate of 31.6% against this A's lineup. Look for him to use his dynamic 85 mph slider to get lots of swings and misses in this game. I also think Lopez will work deep into the game, which further bolsters our shot at this Over!
Pardon me for a second, I just have to do this: Wacha Wacha Wacha! Yes, that is Fozzie Bear's famous saying from the Muppets! With that out of my system, we can get back to MLB stat-nerd stuff.
Wacha has pitched better than his record indicates this year but he's never been a big strikeout guy. His K-rate of 20.6% ranks in just the 38th percentile. His Whiff Rate is even worse, as it puts him in only the 27th percentile.
The Pads already had an impressively low K-rate against righties, but it's improved even more with Luis Arraez now on the team. Arraez is only striking out 6% of the time so far this season. Wacha may work deep into this game, but I see him getting 3 Ks at the most! Take the Under!