Thursday was a perfect night for the good guys, as we enjoyed a nice 3-0 sweep to get back on track in MLB. Zack Wheeler and Grayson Rodriguez both picked up easy wins. Matt Waldron baffled Reds hitters with his knuckleball on his way to cashing our strikeout prop.
Even though the Friday MLB card is loaded with plenty of games, I didn't find that many positive EV plays. The books are getting a lot sharper with their strikeout prop numbers and we never force action around these parts. That said, I did find 3 plays to kick off Memorial Day Weekend.
THANK YOU to all of the brave men and women who serve or have served in our country's armed forces! Y'all are the real heroes! God bless!
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I waited all morning for the Nats to decide on a pitcher, and I'm pleasantly surprised to see that it's going to be MacKenzie Gore. He's a high velocity guy that hits 97 on the gun with ease.
Gore should feast against this Mariners lineup that strikes out a ton versus lefties. Seattle has 8 players with K-rates above 23% (holy cow)! Gore throws hard but he relies on his excellent curveball and devastating slider to put hitters away.
I know it's a lot needing 7 strikeouts out of a starter, but Gore is more than capable of getting us home. His K-rate of 27.1% ranks in the 77th percentile and his whiff rate is also nice (71st percentile).
Okay, I'm doing something I never thought I'd do again! I'm betting on Alek Manoah! Betting on this guy was scarier than any Friday the 13th movie last season, but he seems to have worked out the command issues so far in 2024.
It's never been a stuff issue with Manoah, and his respectable K-rate of 25.3% this season proves that he's back on the right track. What's even more impressive is that Manoah has an expected batting average allowed of just .220. The veteran righty still throws 94 mph with an extension that ranks in the 88th percentile.
Besides the perceived starting pitching edge, I think this is a prime spot to keep fading Detroit. The Tigers have dropped 5 straight and their bats have been ice cold. Let's play the Jays and hope that Vladdy Jr. and the boys can get Manoah some early runs.
Isn't it crazy that a man named Kutter throws a wicked cutter that scares the heck out of most big league hitters? Whatever Kutter Crawford is doing, it's working like a charm in 2024. He ranks in the 87th percentile in hard-hit rate and in the 86th percentile in chase rate.
Neither bullpen is terrible, but I do show a slight edge for the Red Sox in that department. Boston ranks 9th in K minus BB percentage, while Milwaukee ranks 14th. That's not a huge edge, but enough to put my mind at ease if Crawford doesn't go his usual 6 or 7 innings.
The Brewers do have the better offense in this one, but they've been in a funk lately. Milwaukee is hitting just .206 and averaging just 3.3 runs per game over their last 5 outings. Boston is averaging 6.2 runs per game during that same span. Give me the Sox!
Mikey Nobs, have you lost your mind? Maybe! Heck, it wouldn't be the first time! I get that laying heavy juice on an Under 3.5 is scary. However, Stripling has a K-rate of just 13.7% this season. That's one of the lowest in Major League Baseball among starting pitchers.
If there was ever a pitcher that tries to get weak contact instead of blowing hitters away, it's Mr. Stripling. His whiff rate only puts him in the 11th percentile. That's a beautiful number if you're betting his K prop to stay under!
As y'all know by now, Houston strikes out less than almost any other big league team against righties. The Astros faced Stripling back on May 13th and only struck out once. Let's play the Under!