Greetings from sunny Las Vegas! I'm out here for some work meetings but the MLB grind never stops. After yesterday's 2-3 result, we now sit at 82-62 on the season.
Yesterday's card was weird! I really didn't expect Framber Valdez to get lit up by the Angels (of all teams). It was a good reminder than anything can happen in baseball. Anyway, let's get to today's card! Best of luck, my friends!
This is a full out fade of Mets starter Adrian Houser, who sports a hefty 8.16 ERA this season. New York is bringing him out of the bullpen to make this spot start and I don't see it going well. The 6'3" righty has given up 18 earned runs in his last 3 outings.
I'm not a huge fan of Cleveland's lineup against righties, but they shouldn't have any trouble scoring on Houser. Josh Naylor and Jose Ramirez should do a bit of damage early on in this one.
As good as the Mets' bullpen has been, I actually have the Guards rated a smidge higher in my 'pen ratings. Let's lay the reasonable price with Cleveland, as they're 14-3 in their last 17 home games.
This looks like a great price for a salty old veteran pitcher like Logan Webb. No, Webb hasn't had his best stuff yet this season, but I think that changes really soon. The fact that the P'Rats are one of the worst hitting teams against righties will help Webb's cause.
Just how bad has this Pittsburgh offense been? They rank just 28th in WRC+ against righties. To put in mildly, Webb should dominate and get lots of his signature weak ground balls.
On the flip side, Martin Perez has been getting roasted of late. He's given up 16 earned runs over his last 3 starts. Don't be surprised if this G-Men offense lights him up early.
I love watching Big Boy Lance Lynn and I admire his tenacity. However, I think this Balty lineup will smack him around a little bit in this one. The Orioles are one of the best teams in baseball, and I don't see them losing 2 in a row to the Cards.
Kyle Bradish has looked fantastic so far this season, as his expected batting averaged allowed is just .172. Bradish uses a 95 mph sinker and an 88 mph slider to keep hitters guessing. It's worked well so far, as Bradish's hard hit rate is the lowest in baseball.
I love this Balty lineup. Gunnar Henderson, Colton Cowser, and Cedric Mullins are just way too much fun to watch. Give me the O's!
I made this number 7.5, so we'll gladly jump on Schmidt in this spot. He's facing the Mariners today, who have one of the highest strikeout rates in the game versus righties. Seattle has 7 players with K-rates above 24%.
Schmidt has impressed the heck out of me so far this year. His 27% K-rate puts him in the 76th percentile and his Whiff rate isn't too shabby either (74th percentile). The 28-year-old righty uses a nasty cutter and a knee-buckling sweeper to keep hitters confused.
Look for Schmidt to carve up this free-swinging M's lineup quite nicely. Let's ride the Over!
To wrap up the card, let's play an Under! Mize has already cashed a couple of Unders for us this year and we'll keep rolling with it. The former No. 1 overall pick has looked decent, but he's yet to find any type of put-away pitch.
Even though Mize's off-speed stuff is pretty good, his K-rate is just 17.5% (21st percentile). His Whiff rate has also been less than impressive. Mize also gets a tough matchup, at least strikeout wise, against Kansas City.
The Royals never seem to strike out very much against righties. They have 7 guys with K-rates below 19%. Let's see if we can get yet another Under out of Mr. Mize!