Happy Thursday, sports betting compadres! Wednesday was another good night for the BettorsInsider MLB crew, as we went 3-2 to run our record to 78-54. The strikeout props continue to crush, as they went 2-1 yesterday with wins on Brandon Pfaadt and Andrew Abbott.
Man, this 6-game MLB card was a tough one! However, I did find 3 player props that I'm pretty excited about. Check them out below!
This is my first ever play in the outs market, but I just had to do it because I'm such a big believer in Joe Ryan. The 27-year-old has no trouble working deep into games, as he's pitched 6 innings or more in 6 of his 8 starts this season. He was also 17-12 to the Over versus this outs line in 2023.
Ryan is the true ace of a very deep Twins pitching rotation, mainly thanks to a 94 mph fastball that looks more like 99 mph because of his long arms (extension ranks in the 84th percentile). The former 7th round pick also has a splitter that makes most hitters look silly.
The -130 juice being at offered at FanDuel looks like a bargain, especially since other books have this in the -145 to -160 range. Ryan has hit this Over 62.16% of the time over the last 2 years.
At -130, we only need to win 56.5% of the time to break even. That's an implied edge in our favor of 5.66%. We'll take it!
I don't normally like taking overs this high, but Glasnow sometimes forces me to make exceptions. The 6'8" righty has struck out 73 hitters in just 57 innings of work this season. His 96 mph is insanely tough for hitters to catch up to, mainly because of his extension (99th percentile).
Glasnow's K-rate of 33.6% is one of the best in baseball and his Whiff rate isn't too shabby either (74th percentile). His slider can be flat out nasty once he gets a feel for it.
Glasnow gets a great matchup tonight with the Reds. Cincy has 3 hitters with K-rates over 28%. As we saw yesterday, Will Benson is normally good for 2-3 strikeouts per game all by himself. Let's play a late night Over to cap off our evening!
Boy, doesn't this one look too easy? The Dodgers are -300 favorites over the Reds at most online sportsbooks. Maybe I'm oversimplifying things, but getting one of the best pitchers in the game at almost even money to get a win seems like a bargain.
I already talked about how good Glasnow's K-rate is, but let's touch on a couple of other impressive metrics. The 30-year-old's expected ERA is just 2.39, which ranks in the 93rd percentile. He also gets quite a few groundballs for a power pitcher (66th percentile).
Lastly, we all know how powerful this Dodgers lineup can be. I look for them to get Glasnow a few early runs and for him to cruise quite comfortably in this one. Best of luck tonight, folks!