It was another profitable night for the good guys on Tuesday, as our MLB picks finished up at 3-2. Aaron Nola threw a complete game gem to get us a nice plus money winner. Other positives included the Nats beating the White Sox in Game 1 and JP Sears staying under his strikeout prop number.
Our late addition on Mitchell Parker didn't pan out, as he couldn't strike out enough guys. I still think the young man has good stuff, but his lack of experience shined through last night. Our other loss was on Logan Gilbert, who pitched pretty well but was outdueled by Michael Wacha.
Anyway, enough rambling, let's dive into the Wednesday MLB card. We found 3 strikeout props and a couple of other exotic props to check out. Put your Hump Day in the win column, sports betting amigos!
These plus money K props sure are fun to make! It's even more fun when they get us to the pay window. Perez isn't going to blow anyone away with his fastball, but this Brewers lineup has an expected batting average of just .209 against him. That tells me Perez could go 6 innings or more.
I'm not crazy about Perez's low K-rate of 18.6% (27th percentile), but against the Brew Crew that improves to a much better 23%. Milwaukee has one of the highest K-rates in baseball against southpaws, so that favors an Over here as well.
Just how much strikeout potential does this Brewers lineup pose? I'm glad you asked! Milwaukee has 4 hitters with K-rates above 27%! Let's ride an early afternoon Over with your favorite cup of joe!
I'm bullish on Mr. Pfaadt, even though he's burned me a couple of times this year when I've bet on Zona. He's gotten off to a rough start this season, but I still love that he throws 93 mph with very good extension.
Pfaadt's Chase Rate ranks in the 78th percentile, so that's encouraging for the Over here this afternoon against Cincy. Speaking of Cincy, y'all know I love betting on this lineup to strike out a ton. The Reds lineup always seemed to get flummoxed by righties, especially Will Benson and Elly de la Cruz.
The Reds have 3 guys with K-rates over 29%. Pfaadt has also carved up these hitters quite nicely in his career. His lifetime K-rate against this Reds lineup is 31.8%. Take the Over!
It's about time we got an Under on this card! Abbott is an interesting case. He showed a great deal of strikeout potential last season, but that's come down quite a bit now that these big league hitters have seen him.
The young lefty's K-rate is just 20.8% this season, which only puts him in the 42nd percentile. Abbott has pretty good stuff, but he lacks a bona fide put-away pitch. That's why his Whiff Rate is only in the 10th percentile.
Arizona's lineup does very well against lefties! The D'Backs lead MLB in WRC+ against southpaws. That tells me that Zona could give Mr. Abbott a quick exit in this one, which bolsters our Under's chances.
Raise your hand if you had Ranger Suarez on your bingo card as a potential Cy Young candidate in 2024? Anyone who raises their hand is lying! That being said, I've been more than impressed with the young lefty so far this season.
The 28-year-old has 5 elite pitches, so even above-average big-league hitters look lost at the plate when they face him. Suarez ranks in the 96th percentile in hard-hit rate, 95th in groundball rate, and 84th in Chase Rate.
Yes, I think the Mets have the better bullpen, so this is a bit scary. Keep in mind, though, that the Phils pen got a day off yesterday thanks to Nola's gem. Let's bet Suarez at plus money!
I came really close to playing Atlanta -1, but the plus money on this was too tempting to pass up. Morton may be an old man at 40 years old, but he's been pitching like a 25-year-old stud of late. His hard-hit rate has been impressive, at only 33.3%.
The veteran righty still has one of the best curveballs in the game, and I like how he matches up with this Chicago lineup. I love the Cubbies, but the offense has been a bit overrated in my opinion. The North Siders rank just 19th in WRC+ versus righties, while the Bravos rank 8th.
The Atlanta bats woke up in a big way last night by scoring 7 runs last night. Michael Harris and Matt Olson both went deep, and both are looking more comfortable the plate after extended slumps. Give me Morton at the juicy plus price! Let's go Braves!