Our MLB selections went down in flames yesterday with a painful 0-5 performance. I've been doing this for over two decades and going 0-fer never gets any easier. In case you haven't realized, baseball is a funny game.
Oh well, it's time to shake it off and move on. The sky isn't falling. Heck we're still 66-47 on the year and 10-11 this week. All we need is a big Friday to make it a profitable week. Let's go!
As my buddy Boone would say, "it's time to get back to our Under roots". Yes, the Lastros have let us down two days in a row by striking out more than normal. Yes, I know that it's scary playing an Under 3.5 on any pitcher.
All of that being said, Mize just doesn't have strikeout type of stuff. His K-rate of 17.3% only ranks in the 20th percentile in all of baseball. His Whiff Rate is also only in the 20th percentile, which just goes to show he doesn't have a real swing-and-miss type of pitch.
Even with a couple of subpar performances, Houston still has 7 hitters with K-rates under 17%. Let's ride this Under and hope that Altuve, Alvarez, and Tucker can possibly knock Mize out of this game early.
Here we go again with another Under 3.5 play! This Arizona lineup is coming around slowly and the club has achieved its longest winning streak of the season so far (4). One thing I love about these D'Back hitters is that they put the ball in play against lefties.
Arizona has one of the lowest K-rates as a team against southpaws. Not only that, but Irvin has never been a big K-guy. He relies on ground balls and not walking many people to have success on the mound.
Need more encouragement for this Under? Irvin's K-rate is only 16.1% and his Whiff rate is one of the lowest in MLB at 15%. Take the Under!
We just had to mix an Over in here to spice things up a bit! Faithful readers of the column know that we've made a small fortune fading this Reds lineup. We'll keep doing that, even though it didn't work out yesterday.
Cincy has 3 hitters with K-rates above 31%. The injury to Christian Encarncacion-Strand may actually improve the Reds strike out rate, but I can only look to the Over in this spot.
Webb has a 27.5% K-rate lifetime against Cincy, which is an encouraging sign for the Over. He doesn't throw that hard, but his Chase Rate puts him in the 75th percentile. If there's one thing these Reds hitters do, it's chase pitches out of the zone.
I'm going to keep playing the Royals to not strike out very much against right-handed starters. Kansas City has 7 hitters with K-rates less than 20%. That's pretty impressive for a lineup that's filled with mostly young players.
The Royals only strike out 18.6% of the time as a team, which is the 2nd lowest in baseball behind only the Lastros. Guys like Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez just know how to choke up and put the ball in play with 2 strikes.
I've never been a big believer in Canning. His K-rate is only 16.8% and his Whiff Rate puts in just the 31st percentile. Let's cash another plus money Under!
Holy Value, Batman! If the books want to give me the hottest team in baseball at plus money, I'm all over it. Minny is 15-2 over their last 17 games, while Toronto has been scuffling, as they're just 4-10 their last 14.
This is a fabulous matchup between two starters, Joe Ryan and Yusei Kikuchi. As good as Kikuchi has been, I think Ryan has slightly better stuff. The veteran righty has an expected batting average allowed of just .199.
The Twins offense ranks 4th in WRC+ against lefties, while the Jays continue to struggle at the plate with a 23rd place WRC+ rank against righties. Minny also has the far better bullpen, so sign me up!