Sometimes betting on baseball is like a sad country song. That's exactly how I felt last night after our 1-3 performance. It really felt like we deserved better results, as 2 of the beats were especially tough.
Matt Waldron finished with exactly 4 strikeouts, which burned our Over ticket by half a K. Cristopher Sanchez and the Phils bullpen blew a big lead against the lowly Angels. Finally, the Yanks left 10 runners on base in a 2-0 loss to the O's.
To put it bluntly, it was just one of those nights! All right, enough belly-aching! Let's get to Tuesday's card, which includes 3 player props and 2 best bets!
The Cubbies were on my shortlist last night, but of course I didn't play them! What a bummer! Their bullpen is way too sketchy for my liking, so we're going the First 5 innings route with this wager.
Javier Assad gets the ball for Chi-Town and he's been a nice surprise so far. The young righty has an expected batting average against of just .203 and his hard-hit rate of only 27.5% is even more dazzling.
The main reason for the bet though is the Cubs lineup, as they're one of the best in MLB against lefties! The North Siders rank 2nd in WRC+ against southpaws. Look for Dansby Swanson, Michael Busch, and Christopher Morel to tee off on Sean Manea.
I don't typically like taking Under 3.5 on Ks just because the margin for error is so small. However, Houston has one of the lowest strikeout rates in the league against righties. The Astros have 7 players with K-rates under 16%.
Carrasco is getting on up there in years and he just doesn't have his best stuff anymore. He tries to nibble around the edges of the plate, but all that's resulted in is an increased walk rate of 12.3%.
Carrasco's 18.9% strikeout rate puts him in just the 28th percentile in baseball. Give me the Under on this one and let's pray the 'Stros just keep putting the ball in play!
I guess I must be a glutton for punishment, but I have to bet the Phils again tonight! Like I said yesterday, I have the Phillies as the 5th best team in MLB. On the flip side, I have the Angels as the 25th best team in MLB.
Spencer Turnbull makes me nervous at times, but it's hard to argue with his 28.3% strikeout rate. The move to Philly looks to have revitalized his career on the mound. As mad as I am at Philadelphia's bullpen, I still think they're quite a bit better than LAA's.
The lineup comparison isn't even close. Philly ranks 9th in WRC+ against lefties, while LAA ranks just 19th against right-handers. Give me the Phils to even up the series tonight.
I can't believe the nice plus money price on this one! Lopez has been the biggest surprise for the Bravos this season, and he's showing no signs of slowing down. The 30-year-old's slider has a renwed bite to it, and it's getting hitters to chase more often than usual.
Lopez isn't known as a prolific strikeout pitcher, but his Whiff Rate is in the 70th percentile so far this season. He gets a great matchup here against Seattle.
The Mariners strike out a ton versus righties. They have 6 players with K-rates above 28%. Lopez should carve them up quite nicely! Go Braves!
Keller hasn't had his best stuff so far this season, but I'm betting he figures things out soon. Facing a subpar Oakland lineup may be just what the doctor ordered. The A's have 4 guys like K-rates higher than 25%.
In 2023, Keller had a median strikeout number of 7. Even with his decreased performance this season, I'd still have to make this line 7.5 instead of 6.5 if I was booking action.
Even though Keller's K-rate is down, his Chase Rate is still above average at 29%. Expect the 28-year old to work deep into the game and to get at least 7 or 8 strikeouts! Good luck tonight, folks!