MLB Betting Guide: 3 Best Bets and Our Top Player Prop for Monday, April 29
Our MLB picks continue to ring the proverbial cash register, as they're sitting at 43-31 on the season after a solid 3-2 performance on Friday. The player props have been especially encouraging of late, as they're up nearly 7 units through just 20 plays!
April is winding down and we're eager to finish strong! Check out our Monday card below, which features 3 best bets and our top player prop. Good luck, sports betting amigos!
Yankees +121
I love Grayson Rodriguez, but this price is giving him and the O's way too much respect. G-Rod was lit up by the Angels (of all teams) during his last start for 7 runs and 11 hits. Rodriguez will probably bounce back tonight at home, but my gut tells me this New York lineup could get 3-4 runs off him.
Speaking of this Yankees lineup, they've hit the ball very well against righties all year long. As good as the O's lineup is, New York actually ranks higher than them in WRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers.
The Yanks have scored 30 runs in their last 2 games and both Anthony Rizzo and Aaron Judge appear to be heating up. I like Balty's bullpen a little better, but there's no telling how long Craig Kimbrel will be out with a back injury. Give me the Yanks at this inflated number!
Phillies -135 (Bet365)
I love the way this Phillies team is playing right now! They've won 8 of their last 10 and they've been raking the ball since Bryce Harper came back from paternity leave. Philadelphia scored 22 runs during their 3-game sweep of the Padres over the weekend.
On the other hand, the Halos have been in poor current form, as they've only won 1 of their last 10 contests. Griffin Canning looked a little better during his last start, but his expected slugging percentage allowed of .494 is more than a bit alarming.
The Angels offense is also struggling to hit lefties of late, as they're batting just .231 while averaging just 1 run per 9 innings against southpaws. They'll face a tough left-hander tonight in Cristopher Sanchez, who has a dazzling K-rate of 25.5%. Let's play the Fighting Phils!
Reds F5 (-110) (BetMGM)
I love the Reds but I hate their bullpen, which is why I'm going the First 5 route with this wager. Nobody talks much about Nick Lodolo for Cincy, but I think he's got one of the best young arms in the game.
The 26-year-old has a live 94 mph fastball to go along with a devastating curveball. I don't see this struggling Pads lineup being able to do much against Lodolo. San Diego has lost 7 of their last 10 and their pitching staff has been a major disappointment.
Cincy's offense hasn't been too great so far this year, but they still have 4 guys with expected slugging percentages over .459. Let's back the Reds and Lodolo and hope that Elly De La Cruz can continue his hot hitting!
Matt Waldron Over 4.5 Ks (-104 at Caesars)
It feels a little weird betting on the Reds but then taking their opponent's pitcher to go over his strikeouts number. That being said, I think it's the only way to play this one. Cincy strikes out a ton versus right-handers (28.7% K-rate is 2nd highest in MLB).
Waldron's not a big strikeout pitcher but he's got a wicked knuckleball that should leave some of the Reds' hitters baffled. Waldy can also sneak in a 91 mph fastball with good extension just to keep hitters on their toes.
Guys like Will Benson, Jeimer Candelario, and Elly De La Cruz all have strikeout rates above 30%. Let's ride that trend to an Over with Waldron!
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