MLB Betting Guide: 3 Best Bets and 2 Player Props for Friday, April 26
Welcome to the best day of the week to bet some baseball! Friday's cards are always packed and it always puts me in a fantastic mood. There's just something special about a full 15 game slate!
We were bit by the bad beat bug a couple of times yesterday, as we finished up at 1-2. Freddy Peralta needed just one more out to cash our Brewers F5 ticket, but a two out walk was his (and our) undoing.
The Dodgers bullpen also allowed a "meaningless" run to mess up our run line play on them against the Nats. Oh well, let's finish off the week in style!
Tigers -115 (BetMGM)
How about a little daytime action to get things going? Fading Seth Lugo is a scary proposition, but I think Reese Olson has lots of potential. The 24-year-old is 0-3 this year, but his ERA isn't too shabby at 3.80.
Olson doesn't strike out a ton of guys, but his Chase Rate and Whiff Rates are off the charts because of his dynamic slider. He also has an above average sinker, which helps him get lots of weak ground balls (83rd percentile in GB%).
I think Olson will keep the Royals bats at bay and I trust the Tigers bullpen a whole lot more than KC's. I'm also expecting a big day from Kerry Carpenter and Riley Greene. Let's go Tigers!
Dodgers -120 (Caesars)
The Boys in Blue let us down yesterday, but I think their lineup should go off against Chris Bassitt. The veteran righty has a concerning walk rate of 11.6% and an expected batting average against of .288. That's not good news against the likes of Betts, Freeman, and Ohtani.
The Dodgers only manged two runs yesterday, but a lot of that was because they rested Max Muncy and James Outman. Those two will be back tonight, and so will the lineup's overall punch.
I have some concerns about this Dodgers bullpen, but they've been pitching well of late. Hitters are only batting .210 against LAD relievers, which speaks volumes. Let's play the Dodgers, even with Gavin Stone on the hill.
Mets -120 (FanDuel)
I've done pretty well fading the Cards this season and see no reason to jump off that train yet. I respect Miles Mikolas, but he's had a rough start to the season, as evidenced by his massive ERA of 6.49. He's been hanging way too many sliders and his sinker doesn't seem to have the late movement that it used to.
On the flip side, I've been more than impressed with Jose Butto so far. His K-rate of 31.8% is outstanding and his expected batting average against is only .207. His walk rate definitely scares me, but this Cards lineup hasn't been making too many pitchers pay for mistakes.
The Metamucils lineup has been shockingly good so far. I'll admit I didn't see that coming before the season. Marte, Nimmo, Taylor, Alonso, Bader, and Lindor all have expected slugging percentages over .427.
Graham Ashcraft Under 4.5 Ks (-120 at BetMGM)
Ashcraft is one of those guys that's tough to figure out. His stuff is electric but he just never seems to strike out that many guys. I have his median K number at 4.5, but adjusted my number to 3.5 because of this Texas lineup.
Speaking of the Rangers, they just don't strike out very often against righties. Texas has 4 hitters with K-rates under 16%. Rookie Wyatt Langford also puts the ball in play, as his K-rate is just 20.2%.
Yes, I know that Ashcraft has gone over this total in 3 of his 4 starts this season. That being said, all 4 of the teams he's faced strike out quite often (LAA, PHI, MIL, CWS). Give me the Under!
Emerson Hancock Under 4.5 (-136 at FanDuel)
Here's another K line that I think is at least a full strikeout too high. Hancock is clearly a guy that pitches to contact, as his K-rate is just 16.7%. His sinker is decent, but it lacks any real put-away power.
The matchup against Arizona also points to an Under. The D'Backs have 5 everyday players with K-rates lower than 16%. This team knows how to put the ball in play and they do it well. Give me another Under!
Good luck with all your action! I hope y'all have fantastic weekends! Be Blessed!
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