MLB Betting Guide for Friday, April 12: 3 Player Props and 2 Best Bets
As the great Nuke Laloosh said in Bull Durham, "sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, and sometimes it rains." All three of those outcomes happened to us on Thursday.
The Orioles capped off a nice comeback to get us a win. The Braves youngster Allan Winans got lit up like a Christmas tree by the Mets to give us a loss. Finally, our favorite play of the night on the Brewers was rained out. Anyway, let's get to the Friday card, which includes 3 player props and 2 best bets!
Tarik Skubal Over 6.5 Ks (-120) (Caesars)
Caesars is giving us one heck of a discount on this strikeout prop, and we'll gladly take them up on it. Every other sportsbook has this Over juiced in the -140 to -150 range, so we're getting a deal.
My numbers priced this at 7.5 instead of 6.5, mainly because Skubal's median was 7 last year. Skubal is one of the most dominant pitchers in the league and he's facing Minnesota tonight.
The Twinkies have some decent hitters, but they strike out quite often (28.5% K rate is 2nd most in MLB). Skubal had a K-rate of 32.9% last season, which put him in the 96th percentile in MLB.
Dane Dunning Under 4.5 Ks (+105) (BetMGM)
Dunning's K-rate is up quite a bit over last season, but I'm betting that it regresses to the mean in this game. Houston only strikes out 17.7% of the time, which is the 2nd lowest rate in baseball.
Dunning has faced 130 Astros batter and has a K-rate of just 20% against them. Houston has 6 everyday players that strike out 19% of the time or less.
Guys like Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, and Jose Altuve seem to always put the ball in play with 2 strikes instead of swinging for the fences. Give me the Under at this nice plus money price.
JP France Under 4.5 Ks (+102) (FanDuel)
Might as well stay in the same game for our final player prop of the evening. France has 5 decent pitches but he's not a strikeout guy.
In 2023, his 17.4% K-rate only put him in the 13th percentile. His career K-rate against this Rangers lineup is just 14.1%. Texas is coming off an embarrassing series against Oakland, where they dropped 2 of 3 games.
I'm betting the Rangers bats will be in a foul mood and that they'll come to life against France. Let's take another plus money Under!
Red Sox -110 (Bet365)
This is a tricky one, but I think the BoSox have a slight edge at home. They're coming off a tough series sweep at the hands of the Orioles, but we can't really hold that against them too much. Boston starter Tanner Houck has been lights out to start the season, with a K-rate of 37.8% and a walk rate of just 4.4%.
LA starter Reid Detmers dominated the BoSox just a few days ago. Even still, his walk rate of 9.5% is a cause for concern. Guys like Masataka Yoshida and Jarren Duran could make Detmers pay if he starts to walk a lot of guys.
The main reason I like the Red Sox though is their bullpen. Boston has a bullpen ERA of just 3.78, while LAA relievers have combined for a robust 5.74 ERA. Give me the Sox!
Diamondbacks -118 (FanDuel)
This is probably my favorite bet of the evening! Brandon Pfaadt had a rough outing against Atlanta his last time out, but don't read too much into that. Most pitchers are going to struggle against the Braves loaded lineup.
Even though that outing was ugly, Pfaadt has still struck out 13 hitters and walked just one in 10.2 innings of work this season. I'll take Pfaadt all day over St. Louie starter Steven Matz, who has a K-rate of just 14.6% so far this year.
Arizona should also have some nice edges in both the bullpen and with their bats. The D'Backs are averaging 6.7 runs per game against lefties, and I think they'll light up Mr. Matz in this one. Let's go D'Backs!
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