MLB Betting Guide: Our 3 Best Bets for Thursday, April 11
Good morning and Happy Masters Day to everyone in the golf world! Just because the whole world is focused on Augusta doesn't mean we should ignore the diamond. There are only 7 games on the MLB slate, but we found some solid value nonetheless.
Our MLB picks got back to their winning ways on Wednesday by posting a 2-1 mark. Yusei Kikuchi was lights out and easily cashed our strikeout prop and the D'Backs pulled off a late inning rally to take down the Rockies. Our lone loser was on the Dodgers, which was a surprise.
MLB Bonus Offer: Bet $5, Get $150 from DraftKings
Braves -140 (First 5 Innings) (DraftKings)
Jump on this one quickly, as the price won't be there long and the game starts at 12:20 PM Eastern Time. DraftKings is being overly generous with this price, or at least it appears that way. Most books have this in the -160 to -175 range, so there's a ton of implied value.
Atlanta has absolutely destroyed Jose Quintana, as he is just 2-5 with an ERA of 6.75 through 8 starts against the Bravos. Marcell "Big Bear" Ozuna is batting a robust .455 against Quintana in his career. As you might expect, Atlanta has 5 hitters with expected batting averages over .277. New York only has 2.
One of Atlanta's top pitching prospects, Allan Winans, makes his season debut today. The 28-year-old has an array of 4 decent pitches that he can throw for a strike at anytime. Let's go Bravos!
Brewers -125 (BetMGM)
I cashed with Freddy Peralta last Friday, and he's quickly becoming one of my favorite pitchers to bet on. The young righty has dominated this Cincy lineup, as his K-rate is 37% against them through 46 batters faced. He didn't allow a single run through 12 innings of work against the Red Legs last season.
The Brewers offense is also off to a much better start than Cincinnati's. Milwaukee is averaging 6.1 runs per game, while Cincy is only averaging 5.4. Christian Yelich has been red hot for the Brew Crew, as he's tied for the National League lead in homers with 5.
Lastly, I trust the Brewers bullpen more in this matchup. Milwaukee relievers have a combined WHIP of 1.06, while Cincy's group is sitting at 1.36. This price is a bargain on the Beer Makers!
Orioles -122 (BetRivers)
I know it's difficult to sweep away a division rival, especially on the road. That being said, this price is too cheap to ignore. I have the O's as a Top 5 team in baseball. Boston has shown a lot of fight, but I have them as just the 20th-best team.
This Baltimore lineup is one of the most dangerous in the American League. The O's have 5 hitters with expected slugging percentages of .475 or higher. Those 5 hitters don't even include Anthony Santander and Cedric Mullins, as they've both gotten off to slow starts.
I love how well Grayson Rodriguez is developing. The 24-year-old had some ups and downs in 2023, but he looks poised for a huge year in 2024. G-Rod has a 97 MPH fastball and a 90 MPH cutter that is just plain nasty. Give me the Birds over the BoSox at this reasonable price.