Humberto Castellanos takes the hill for Arizona.
Humberto Castellanos takes the hill for Arizona.@Dbacks on Twitter

MLB Saturday Stat Insights: Mets vs Diamondbacks, Trevor Williams & Humberto Castellanos

New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks, 8:10 pm EDT.

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Right-hander Trevor Williams is expected to start today for New York, while right-hander Humberto Castellanos gets the nod at home for Arizona. Williams enters this contest with a 0.00 ERA, backed up by a 1.86 FIP (which is a better measure of the things a pitcher can control). The last time Williams was on the bump, the Mets lost to the Nationals 4-3. He left allowing 2 earned runs and recording 3 strikeouts with 2 walks. Castellanos's last start was against the Mets, when the D-Backs lost 5-0. Over 4 innings pitched, he allowed 0 earned runs with 1 hit. He also recorded 1 strikeout with 3 walks.

Mets Insights:

  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.20 Units / 29% ROI)

  • Met CF Travis Jankowski is in the 0 percentile for power (according to THE BAT X's interpretation of Statcast data).

  • The Mets offense projects to score the 3rd-most runs on the day's slate.

D-Backs Insights:

  • Low humidity has a small but significant correlation with less offense (and more strikeouts), and this game projects for the least humid conditions of all games on the slate today at 6%.

  • Chase Field sits at the 5th-highest altitude in MLB. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.

  • Chase Field has the 3rd-most foul ground among all parks — that means fewer foul balls, shorter at-bats, and ultimately more outs for starting pitchers.

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