Adam Wainwright will pass Bob Gibson with his 7th opening day start for the Cardinals.
Adam Wainwright will pass Bob Gibson with his 7th opening day start for the Cardinals.@Cardinals on Twitter

MLB Opening Day Stat Tips: Pirates vs Cardinals – JT Brubaker faces ageless Adam Wainwright

Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals, 4:15 pm EDT.

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Thursday afternoon the Pittsburgh Pirates battle against the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium. The Pirates offense will be led by Bryan Reynolds, who ranks as the #26-best hitter in baseball according to THE BAT X. Given Reynolds' profile and today's matchup specifics, THE BAT X expects him to average a 0.335 wOBA, 0.268 AVG, and 0.15 HRs. On the other side, Paul Goldschmidt (THE BAT X's #28 hitter in MLB) will bolster the Cardinals lineup. He projects for a 0.353 wOBA, 0.266 AVG, and 0.18 HRs.

Pirates Insights:

  1. THE BAT X projects JT Brubaker to throw 85 pitches in this matchup (6th-least of all pitchers on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

  2. Ke'Bryan Hayes's 5.1% Barrel% is in the 22nd percentile since the start of last season.

  3. Ke'Bryan Hayes has a 97 percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.8%) and has to hit them towards MLB's 2nd-deepest RF fences today.

Cardinals Insights:

  1. Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Adam Wainwright must realize this, because he has relied on his non-fastballs a lot since the start of last season: 62.7% of the time, checking in at the 90th percentile.

  2. Tyler O'Neill's 98.9-mph exit velocity on fly balls ranks in the 99th percentile since the start of last season.

  3. St. Louis ranks as the #2 group of hitters when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs (16.4% rate since the start of last season).

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