Thursday MLB Best Bets: J.J. picks K prop bets for Rockies vs Giants, Rangers v Astros, Tigers vs Royals, and Brewers vs Cardinals
Thursday Bets: Pitcher Strikeouts
As we head into the final week of the regular season, a lot of teams (at least in the NL) are still in the hunt to sneak into the expanded postseason. This makes for an exciting day of baseball, where teams need their pitchers to give them a chance more than ever. Let’s get into it.
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants (3:45 PM ET)
SP: Kevin Gausman – Tied 21st in strikeouts (68), 11.62 K/9
Note: Big strikeout season for Gausman so far and has been even better in that category as the season has gone on. 45 punchouts over his last 32 innings, he is now facing a Rockies team that is middle of the pack in strikeouts. However, with Giants holding on to the second Wild Card spot, I think Giants are going to rely on Gausman, especially with a mediocre bullpen in a pivotal game, and expect a minimum of 90 pitches from him today.
Last Outing: At Oakland Athletics, 6 strikeouts over 6 IP. Threw 84 pitches.
Prop: Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+115)
Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros (8:05 PM)
SP: Lance Lynn – 12th in strikeouts (84), 9.65 K/9
Note: Absolute workhorse on the mount, topping 100 pitches in every game this season. Following up a great 2019 campaign that resulted in a top 5 Cy Young finish. Lynn is showing he is a true ace. Strikeouts are down this year compared to last, but still averaging almost 10 K/9. Important to note that Astros have the fewest strikeouts as a team this season. However, in his only start against Houston this year, Lynn struck out 7 in 6 innings (while giving up 6 runs). This was his only game allowing more than 3 runs this season, and I think he bounces back in a big way.
Last Outing: At Los Angeles Angels, 5 strikeouts in 7 IP. Threw 107 pitches.
Prop: Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+120)
Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals (8:05 PM)
SP: Kris Bubic – Tied 73rd in strikeouts (44), 8.74 K/9
Note: The young southpaw rookie is making his 10th career start against the lowly Tigers. After only recording 19 strikeouts across his first 5 starts (22IP), he has improved all his numbers across the board. In his last 4 starts and 22IP, he has fanned 25 batters, while also lowering his ERA and increasing his pitch count. Detroit has struck out the 5th most in the MLB this year, and I am looking forward to seeing Bubic continue getting comfortable in the big leagues and showing why he was a first rounder back in 2018.
Last Outing: At Milwaukee Brewers, 7 strikeouts in 5.1 IP. Threw 101 pitches.
Prop: Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-125)
Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals (8:15 PM)
SP: Corbin Burnes – 13th in strikeouts (83), 13.34 K/9
Note: Burnes always had high expectations for the Brewers, and after a disappointing 2019, he has bounced back and had an incredible shortened campaign. The 25-year-old began the year with a reduced pitch count, not topping 80 pitches until his 5th start. Since then, the righty has 59 punchouts in 40 IP and has seen his pitch count increase up to 100 pitches his last two starts. The Cardinals do not strike out much, but in his last start against St. Louis, Burnes still managed to fan 10 in just 4.2 IP.
Last Outing: Versus Kansas City Royals, 9 strikeouts in 6IP. Threw 100 pitches.
Prop: Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+105)