With approximately 25 games left in the regular season, I wanted to look at what teams are getting ready for October baseball. The teams that will compete for an opportunity to play in the Fall Classic. The Astros, Braves, Nationals, Twins and Cardinals all have records of 8-2 or better over the last ten. Each of these teams are leading their divisions or the front runner in the wild card position.
The Astros have the best starting pitching rotation in the majors, so I expect them to win 75% of the remaining games on the schedule. 11 games are on the road where they are slightly above 500. 7 of the games are against the Royals and the Angels. 5 of those should be wins.
The Cardinals have 10 of their last 13 games against the Nationals and the Cubs. Cubs have taken 4 of the 6 games they have played so far. Nationals are formidable so I would lean towards them taking 2 out of 3. St Louis is my projected team to cool down of the 5 hot teams. They would still be in contention for a wild card spot.
The teams that are vying for the best record in MLB are the Yankees, Dodgers and Astros. Each should win over 100 games. I would lean toward Houston based on the remaining schedule. The injury to Max Muncy will sideline him for 2 weeks so look for the Dodgers to go to a 60%-win clip over the final 22.
The formula for the teams fighting for the Wild card is to gain at least 1 game a week on the teams ahead of you. Teams like the Phillies and Diamondbacks are running out of weeks. Unless they get hot and win 75% the rest of the way or 19 games, they don’t make the playoffs. Arizona is holding up their end, going 7-3 over the last 10.
If you are looking at teams that are just playing out the string, keep an eye on the Marlins and Tigers. If they play a contending team, they will be a heavy lay for the money line. Choose wisely!
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