God's Tipster's Saturday Aqueduct Picks: 6 races including the Grade 3 Pebbles and Grade 2 Red Smith
Friday’s Race Recap from Aqueduct:
(All odds US)
Race 1: SCRATCH
Race 2: 2nd@ 2.55/1
Race 5: SCRATCH
Race 7: 1st@ 1.45/1 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
After a scratch in Race 1, we dueled our way around the track with eventual winner - Sue Ellen Mishkin finishing second with Slack Tide. We had a BEST BET scratch in Race 5 and in Race 7 we got our win as Be the Boss stalked early and drew off late to an impressive win.
We’ll do it again at Aqueduct with 10 races on the Saturday card. Fast and firm conditions beneath sunny skies. Let’s get right to work!
Race 1: The Delaware Boyz - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 9/2)
Two-year-old maiden claimers bred in New York sprint six furlongs here to open our card. This is a weak field and the debuting The Delaware Boyz deserves a look here coming from the barn of David Duggan. On Thursday’s race card, Duggan had an 8/1 debut winner named Walk With Me who went to the lead and never looked back. Later on the card he ran 11/1 Classic Diva making her second career start off a September layoff and she aired, winning by nearly 4 lengths. In Race 9 on that same card, Duggan ran Speights Dance in a similar NY bred maiden claiming race for two-year-olds. This was her third career start and first start on dirt and she finished second at 13/1 behind the 1/2 favorite. This two-year-old gelded son of Cloud Computing went for $105,000 or 30x his sire’s stud fee. He’s now for sale so that may temper some enthusiasm but when a lower profile barn gets hot, I pay attention and at 9/2 odds or better I’m looking for The Delaware Boyz to win the opener for this New York Boy.
Race 2: Iron Works - 2 pts win (US Morning Line Odds: 1/2)
$25K claimers race a mile and - sure, he’s 1/2 but after getting roughed up with my selections in last week’s Breeders’ Cup I’m out for blood this weekend looking to get my win percentage back up. Iron Works, whom I own exactly a 0.01% share of, is being put up for a tag for the first time in his career. $25K is quite a sizable drop from the company he’s been keeping but he needs this. His numbers absolutely tower over these, he adds blinkers which is a move I wish they would’ve done a few starts ago and he looks awfully tough. Free-square for our pick 5 and pick 4 bettors.
Race 3: Escalation Clause - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 4/1)
Three-year-olds and older maidens race a mile on the main track. This was a FUN race to handicap because I’ve found flaws in the favorites and a few intriguing longshots. Let’s run them down: Lucency is our 5/2 morning line favorite off a 4th on debut after hitting the gate. I didn’t love the way he couldn’t change leads on the gallop out at 7 furlongs and today he gets an additional furlong - PASS. 3/1 second choice - Authorize - returns off a 709-day layoff. His dam and siblings all had trouble staying on the track with running lines littered with layoffs and declining form - PASS. 7/2 third choice - Ringside goes turf to dirt, sprint to route and has good early speed but not much staying power - PASS. 4/1 - Escalation Clause - debuts for Chad Brown late in the season at the age of three at a mile which isn’t the easiest debut distance, but Brown debut runners win at 21% at a mile or greater. This guy’s sold for $400K which is 100x his sire’s stud fee so he’s among the most expensive progeny of Awesome Slew to race. This one’s dam was all turf and he’s got a sibling who was all polytrack yet Brown debuts him on the main track - a curious move. I get the impression that this runner is live, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he won this on debut. Fair odds are 4/1 or higher.
Race 5: Cugino - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 5/1)
Two-year-old turf maidens go a mile and a sixteenth and I’m siding with a debut runner from the barn of Shug McGaughey named Cugino. McGaughey’s win percentage is 14% with debut turf runners over this NY circuit but his average payoff is a profitable $17.98 and this two-year-old son of 17% turf route sire Twirling Candy has a right to be good. This one’s dam won three of six starts on turf including two stakes and she’s already produced two stakes placed turf runners from two foals to start: Battle of Normandy, who won his debut effort on turf and Veronica Green who missed by a neck in her turf debut before breaking her maiden on turf in her second turf start. Cugino’s been working well for a barn who’s done well with jockey Javier Castellano (25% wins) and I like him in this spot at 5/1 or better.
Race 6: Sacred Wish - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 5/2)
The Grade 3 Pebbles at a mile on turf is our co-feature race on today’s card and it features a good-looking group of three-year-old fillies. Chad Brown has two runners that recently broke their maidens but I’m siding with a runner from the red-hot barn of George Weaver named Sacred Wish. Sacred Wish has quite an experience edge over her main rivals here. While Brown’s runners are exiting maiden events, Sacred Wish will be running in her seventh stakes race. Last time out she hooked a tough field at Keeneland and ran well to be fourth while being crowded inside. She’s gained valuable experience and I think it gives her a leg up on her competition. It also doesn’t hurt that her trainer is 4 for 6 at the meet thus far. She’s actually good value at 5/2 or higher.
Race 9: Lost Ark - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 15/1)
The Grade 2 Red Smith at a mile and three eighths on turf is our feature race on today’s card and drew an evenly-matched field of turf marathoners. Lost Ark is my choice here at what will be juicy odds considering the fact that his barn is winning at a 38% clip and he’s got the country’s top rider aboard. Contrarians will say that in his lone turf start his speed figure wasn’t fast enough to match these. His lone turf race was at a much shorter mile and a sixteenth distance where he faced several stakes placed rivals with stakes-winner - Carl Spackler who was 0.25/1 that day. He actually ran faster than Carl Spackler on his half mile fraction and his ¾ fraction. He came up a little shorter in his final ¼-mile but he ran faster closing fractions than three of his four rivals that day facing some heady company for a turf debut. Last time out he battled on gamely at 1¼ miles on dirt to get his second stakes win. I see no reason why this guy can’t improve going first time long on the grass. He’s already proven he can do it on dirt and his lone grass start was better than it looks on paper. Upset special!
Best of luck to all our members playing Saturday’s races from Aqueduct!