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Garrity's Saturday Stakes picks Aqueduct and Keeneland, with the Mother Goose, Forty Niner, Fayette, more

Garrity's first post is 3:48 pm EDT.

It’s a mixed bag of stakes racing action today, with good cards in both New York and Kentucky. We have selected five races, three at Aqueduct and two at Keeneland, for some fun Saturday afternoon action. The weather will be autumnal perfection at both the Big A and in Bluegrass country; we expect fast dirt and firm turf in all races, so let’s go.

Aqueduct, Race 8, 3:48 pm ET

Grade 2 Mother Goose Stakes, 1 ⅛ miles, Dirt, 3-Year-Old Fillies

Seven 3-year-old fillies go in the Mother Goose. The morning line choice is 6-Xigera, who we liked in her last spot, the Seneca Overnight Stakes at Churchill Downs, which she won by over six lengths. She got a big speed figure for that effort, which is why she’s the 6/5 favorite, but we cannot take that price on her, as the field she beat in the Seneca was somewhere between mediocre and lousy. This group is much tougher, which makes her a play-against.

We like 1-Foggy Night. She was last seen in the Grade 1 Cotillion at Parx, a race that was dominated by closers. Foggy Night was a victim of that pace collapse, as she made a move into the swift early pace, and then unsurprisingly faded late to finish a well-beaten sixth. We think she will be much better today, as she should get a much more favorable trip from a pace standpoint: we see her getting a good stalking trip, and saving ground, from her inside post, sitting just behind the early leader, ready to pounce when the field comes out of the far turn. We will bet Foggy Night to win at 15-1. The bet: Aqueduct, Race 8, $40 to win on 1-Foggy Night.

Aqueduct, Race 9, 4:22 pm ET

$135,000 Awad Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Turf, 2-Year-Olds

Juvenile turfers, eight of them, line up for the Awad. It’s a pretty weak group, which has us liking a long shot, 4-Blue Creek, who broke his maiden quite nicely at Colonial Downs back in August, and then was doomed by slow starts in both of his subsequent starts: he made up ground late, but was too far back to win. We think that this colt has some ability, and we think that with a bit better break, he is a win threat, at very appealing 15-1 odds. He’ll probably be last early – but as long as he’s not way last, he should be OK. We will play him to win. The bet: Aqueduct, Race 9, $40 to win on 4-Blue Creek.

Keeneland, Race 8, 4:44 pm ET
Grade 3 Bryan Station Stakes, 1 mile, Turf, 3-Year-Olds

The Bryan Station drew a field of ten. We can’t get past the favorite, 9-More Than Looks, who comes off a sharp win in the Jefferson Cup Stakes at Colonial Downs a month ago. Look for him to prevail with a strong late rally. He’s 9/5 on the morning line; we will bet him to win. The bet: Keeneland, Race 8, $40 to win on 9-More Than Looks.

Aqueduct, Race 10, 4:53 pm ET
Grade 2 Forty Niner Stakes, 1 mile, Dirt, 3 & Up

An octet of older dirt milers lines up for the Forty Niner. On paper, it looks like there will be a speed duel, as several of the most logical entrants have the same speedy running style. That will set the table quite nicely, we think, for 5-Dr Ardito, a closer who excels at this mile distance, with five wins in seven career starts at the distance. Look for him to be rolling late; we will bet him to win at 6-1 odds. The bet: Aqueduct, Race 10, $40 to win on 5-Dr Ardito.

Keeneland, Race 9, 5:16 pm ET

Grade 2 Hagyard Fayette Stakes, 1 ⅛ miles, Dirt, 3 & Up

A dozen line up for the Fayette. Eleven of them are older horses, but we like the lone 3-year-old in the field: it’s 7-Il Miracolo, who comes off a third-place finish in the Pennsylvania Derby at Parx last month. That was a good effort any way you look at it, but we think it was even better than it might appear at first glance, as Il Miracolo ran against the grain of the track that day, trying to make up ground on a sloppy racing surface that favored speed significantly. This is the time of year when 3-year-olds have matured enough to be able to be serious threats against older horses; we think Il Miracolo will show that by taking the price here. We will bet him to win at 6-1. The bet: Keeneland, Race 9, $40 to win on 7-Il Miracolo.

That’s all for today. Until tomorrow, enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows. 

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