God's Tipster's Wednesday Churchill Downs Pick: The 10th is dirt mile for 2yo maiden fillies – one has Promise

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God's Tipster is the Betting God's US Racing expert.
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Good morning racing fans! We are back for another exciting week of racing from around the US which will include the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby and Grade 1 Cotillion on Saturday. We’ll start our week at Churchill Downs though. We’re expecting fast and firm conditions beneath sunny skies. We had a choppy week last week with a few of our favorites winning but our longshots didn’t connect. That’s going to happen, especially as we just opened two meets. I’ll be focusing on Churchill Downs and Belmont at Aqueduct for the next few weeks, so we’ll have time to perfect things. Let’s get to the action!

Churchill Downs:

Race 10: Promisemeanempire - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 5/1)

Two-year-old maiden fillies race a mile here. Over the last five years and exactly 46 races I’ve handicapped at Churchill Downs at today’s distance we have a positive ROI of +$2.19. We’ve got a field of 12 runners here with three making their debut (a challenging thing to do at today’s distance) and two will be making their dirt debut after getting some turf experience under their belt. Promisemeanempire was where I landed here. She was well meant first time out where, despite losing by 8 lengths at 20/1 odds, she was nearly 10 lengths clear of the third place finisher as she debuted at a mile. That debut effort at today’s distance makes her one of only two runners in today’s field with a race on dirt at today’s distance. I loved the way she leveled out in the stretch drive of her debut effort. I don’t think many of these want to go today’s mile distance, but she does. Her barn is 2 for 4 to start the meet and she’s had two works since. Jockey and trainer winning at a 36% clip and if you can get 5/1 those are fair odds here.

Best of luck to all our members playing Wednesday’s races from Churchill Downs!

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