God's Tipster's Saturday Saratoga Picks: Four races including the Grade 2 Lake George and Grade 1 Alabama
Friday’s Race Recap from Saratoga:
(All odds US)
Race 1: SCRATCH
Race 4: 3rd@ 22.50/1
Race 7: 6th@ 10.90/1
Race 8: 3rd@ 1.70/1
We scratched from Race 1. In Race 4 Paris Style ran a brave race with the top two race favorites the entire race and checked in third at 22/1. In Race 7, Bourbon Calling was four wide in upper stretch and tired and in Race 8, Seize the Gray didn’t break particularly well and was last by the time they hit the far turn. He made up a ton of ground and was moving best late while altering course a few times. I look for him to make a splash in longer races in the future.
It’s Grade 1 Alabama weekend! The filly counterpart to next Saturday’s Grade 1 Travers drew a Grade 1 caliber field and I’m excited to win some money today. Let’s get to the action!
Race 1: Risk It - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 4/1)
Two-year-old maidens sprint six furlongs to kick off Alabama Day! This is a pretty typical blue-blooded field of runners and I’m willing to Risk It on our debuting rail runner, Risk It for the Steve Asmussen barn. This son of Gun Runner has a pretty extensive work-tab which has the two things I like best: Five-furlong workouts for endurance and a three-furlong sharpener right before his first start. Debuting Asmussen runners have an average speed figure of just above 57 which is stronger than the numbers the other trainers hold for this type of race. He’ll need to break well from that rail post so the question you’ll have to ask yourself is whether or not you’re willing to Risk It on Risk It in Race 1.
Race 2: Walley World - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 7/2)
It’s hard to say with much confidence these days whether or not we’ll be racing on turf at Saratoga but without rain in the forecast for the next 24 hours I’m hoping we get Saturday’s races on the grass at least. If we do, I like the aptly named Walley World in this spot. Aptly named because the dam’s name is Forced Family Fun and anyone who’s watched the “National Lampoon’s Vacation” movies knows all about Walley World. Walley World the horse is trained by top turf trainer Chad Brown and ridden by Flavien Prat - top connections. Brown wins at a strong 21% at Saratoga with two-year-olds debuting in turf routes and that number jumps to 38% when Prat is aboard. The works are well-spaced, and I’ll take 7/2 or higher on a debuting two-year-old on turf from this barn with seemingly no killers signed on to face him.
Race 7: Gloria’s Princess - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 9/2)
The Grade 2 Lake George at a mile and a sixteenth on turf is our co-feature race of the day and features a bevy of up and coming three-year-old fillies looking to burst on the scene with the Breeders’ Cup not far away. Gloria’s Princess is a favorite of mine. She’s a half to Grade 1 winning Harvey’s Lil Goil and has won 2 of 3 on turf. She lost her turf debut to Spansive, who would also win her next start. Then she blasted a maiden field on the Kentucky Oaks under-card at Churchill Downs. Last time out she caught a field at Ellis Park that she was supposed to beat. She dispatched them as a 3/5 shot should and she did it on-the-engine the whole trip. Brendan Walsh is winning at 29% and he’s got this three-year-old daughter of Cairo Prince primed and ready for this with three strong turf works leading up to this race. Can she be as good as her older sister was? Maybe better? Either way at 9/2 I look forward to finding out.
Race 9: Taxed - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 8/1)
The Grade 1 Alabama at a mile and a quarter drew a strong field of three-year-old fillies all shooting for divisional honors. I loved Taxed in the Grade 2 Black Eyed Susan and she came through at 11/1 and I love her again here. She races like a runner who likes longer distances. The longest race she ever ran was where she turned in her best performance to date. Last time out she had to cut back to a mile and a sixteenth and she ran fine, just slightly below what she’d be at longer. Today she’ll get her longest distance to date and I think that works in her favor. As does the probable pace scenario with Chocolate Gelato and Randomized looking like they’ll battle on the front end. Favored Wet Paint will be the one she’ll need to watch out for, and she’s lost to that one before but once again I think the distance will play into her favor and at 8/1 I’m taking the chance.
Wishing our members the very best of luck in all your wagers on Saturday’s card from Saratoga!