Garrity's Saturday Stakes picks races at Colonial Downs, Monmouth Park, Saratoga, with longshot in The Sanford
It’s a busy day today, with a big Saturday card at Saratoga, a couple of stakes at Colonial Downs in Virginia, and a nice little turf sprint at Monmouth Park. We have five plays in all for this fine summer afternoon, and we expect fast dirt and firm turf in all of them, except as noted below. Let’s go.
Colonial Downs, Race 6, 4:10 pm ET
$125,000 Brookmeade Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Turf, Fillies & Mares 3 & Up
The Brookmeade drew a field of seven, and a prohibitive favorite, 1-Tufani, who comes off consecutive wins, and who by post time is almost certain to be a shorter price than her 4/5 morning line number. She is certainly the most likely winner, but we think she is far from a certainty, and are therefore are taking a swing against her.
The pick is 7-Surya. She is a very consistent sort, a stretch-runner whose typical effort places here somewhere between fourth and first, depending on the level of her competition and the way the race shape sets up. We think that in this spot, Surya has found a field she can handle, and we think the early pace will be swift enough to set the table for her late charge. We will bet her to win at 5/2. The bet: Colonial Downs, Race 6, $40 to win on 7-Surya.
Monmouth Park, Race 9, 4:36 pm ET
$100,000 Blue Sparkler Stakes, 5 ½ furlongs, Turf, 3-Year-Old Fillies
A full field of nine lines up for the Blue Sparkler at the Jersey Shore. The pick is 8-My Sweet Affair, who was an also-ran in each of her last three starts, but who ran well in all of them, and did so against tougher company than she will face here. Look for her to get a good stalking trip from her outside post, and to prevail with a strong move as the field comes out of the far turn and into the home stretch. We will be her to win at 4-1. The bet: Monmouth Park, Race 9, $40 to win on 8-My Sweet Affair.
Colonial Downs, Race 7, 4:40 pm ET
$125,000 Edward P. Evans Stakes, 1 mile, Turf, 3 & Up
A field of ten turf milers lines up for this stakes race in Virginia. We’re all in 10-Alex Joon, who will need to negotiate the disadvantageous outside post, but who otherwise appears the best. Look for him to be well back early, and flying late; we will bet him to win at 3/2. The bet: Colonial Downs, Race 7, $50 to win on 10-Alex Joon.
Saratoga, Race 9, 5:45 pm ET
Grade 3 Kelso Stakes, 1 mile, Turf, 3 & Up
A field of eight lines up for the Kelso Stakes. We’re expecting soft turf, which makes the selection 5-Filo Di Arianna, who is in good form, coming off a very close runner-up finish in the Poker at Belmont Park, and has run well in the past on grass with give in it. Look for Filo de Arianna to go right to the front, and to stay that way all around the track. We will bet him to win at 5-1. The bet: Saratoga, Race 9, $40 to win on 5-Filo Di Arianna.
Saratoga, Race 10, 6:19 pm ET
Grade 3 Sanford Stakes, 6 furlongs, Dirt, 2-Year-Olds
An interesting field of ten is entered in the Sanford Stakes. The surest bet of the day is that 9-Gold Sweep is going to be favored, as he’s run twice, and earned big speed figures both times, especially in his last, when he won the Tremont at Belmont Park a month ago in very fast time. He may win, but if he does, it will be without our money, because he’s going to be something like 2/5, and that is is no way indicative of his edge over the rest of the field.
We’re going for a price, and a big one: 5-Factor U and Me In, who is 30-1 on the morning line, and could well be higher when the gates open. He’s run once, when he won a 2-furlong baby race at Parx back in early May, but what has us fancying his chances here are speed, which he has in abundance, and the fact that his trainer, Eddie Coletti, Jr., has chosen this very tough spot rather than a more logical race closer to his home base at Parx Racing. We think Factor U and Me In is live, and at 30-1, we’ll bet him to win. The bet: Saratoga, Race 10, $40 to win on 5-Factor U and Me In.
That’s all for today. Until tomorrow, enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.