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God's Tipster's Friday Kentucky Oaks Pick: It's the 11th race at Churchill Downs, we like a horse at a price

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God's Tipster is the Betting God's US Racing expert.
God's Tipster is the Betting God's US Racing expert.Betting Gods

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(There were no picks Thursday)

Wednesday’s Race Recap from Churchill Downs:

(All odds US)

Replays for Wednesday’s races from Churchill Downs can be found here:

Toteboard & Replays

Churchill Downs:

Race 1: 1st@ 2.58/1 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

Race 4: 6th@ 5.34/1

Race 7: 5th@ 14.79/1

Race 8: 5th@ 7.30/1

Race 9: 2nd@ 10.10/1

We began our Kentucky Derby week with a mile and a quarter showdown. Kissalot set the pace until the final yards when Allege’s persistence paid off as he was finally able to grind that one down for the victory. Favored Locally Owned finished third. In Race 4, Gloria’s Princess made her second start on turf a winning one as this half to Grade 1 winner Harvey’s Lil Goil sped to the lead and never looked back. Heckled stalked and faded in the drive. In Race 7, Spartan Army stalked the pace and scraped the paint coming up the inside but was no match as he settled for fifth. In Race 8, Calibrate never really got on track finishing fifth and in Race 9, American Apple went 8 wide while the eventual winner rode the rails. We had to settle for second at 10/1.

A 5/2 winner and an unlucky 10/1 place runner from five picks today.

Good morning racing fans! It’s Friday! It’s the weekend! It’s Kentucky Oaks Day! It’s Kentucky Derby-Eve! There’s no race recap from Thursday because I didn’t like Thursday’s races and wanted to save my bullets for the weekend. Let’s get right to work on Friday’s card from Churchill Downs. As of the writing of this message there’s a 50% chance of rain for Friday in the Louisville area but I’ll be handicapping for fast and firm and crossing my fingers. Let’s get started!

Churchill Downs:

Race 11: Defining Purpose - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 12/1)

Race 11 is the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks at a mile and an eighth on the main track. Wet Paint is our 5/2 morning line favorite and she’s tough to knock. She’s undefeated in four starts over the main track and has won relatively easily each time. She’s also had some pace to run into in those starts and in my opinion has faced more sprinter-types. Today she’ll race a little further than she has yet and her recent 83/89 speed figure range isn’t overly imposing. I wish that Julia Shining had drawn into this field but as of today she’s on the outside looking in. In her absence I’m siding with Defining Purpose who looks like a good combination of class and value. 12/1 odds sound awfully fair on one of only two Grade 1 winners in this field. Trainer Ken McPeek has taken his time with her and after losing to Wet Paint twice over wet tracks at Oaklawn she upset the field in the Grade 1 Central Bank Ashland at Keeneland st 20/1 odds. Some may dismiss her Ashland win as a 20/1 fluke but I was impressed with her effort. She stalked the early pace set by Effortlesslyelegant, who would fade to 5th and battled on bravely to turn back previously undefeated Punchbowl and the late-charging Julia Shining. She strode out powerfully and battled gamely to the wire. I have a feeling this Grade 1 Ashland will end up being a key race. She’s been working bullets since her last start and should give them all they can handle from just off the pace.

Wishing our members the best of luck wagering on Friday’s races from Churchill Downs!

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