God's Tipster's Friday Keeneland Pick: The 9th is a 7 furlong sprint and these horses are not ready for Debate
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Thursday’s Race Recap from Aqueduct:
(All odds US)
Replays of Thursday’s races from Aqueduct can be found here:
Aqueduct:
Race 3: 1st@ 2.90/1 - BEST BET!
Race 5: 2nd@ 3.30/1 by a dirty nose!
Race 8: 9th@ 6.40/1
In Race 3, Love Appeals held off a reasonable early pace took the lead turning for home and drew clear to a convincing win at overlaid odds of 2.90/1 as our BEST BET off a 9/5 morning line. In Race 5, Fayette Joker was wide from post 11 in his debut effort but kept grinding away and at the end came up a closing, dirty-nose shy of a debut win. In Race 8, Mama’s Gold stalked the early pace and faltered late.
I don’t like Aqueduct’s race card for Friday and I’m hunting for a longshot or two to close out our month so I’m headed to closing day at Keeneland where there’s an 80% chance of rain and I’ll be handicapping accordingly.
Keeneland:
Race 9: Debate - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 6/1)
Allowance runners sprint 7 furlongs here and A La Carte is our 4/5 morning line choice after posting two consecutive speed figures to begin his career that are higher than anyone else in this field has run in their collective 52 career starts. But strange things can happen on closing day, especially when there’s an off track and A La Carte will be running outside of the confines of Gulfstream Park for the first time while stretching out an additional furlong. I’m going to try to beat him with Debate, who used to be trained by A La Carte’s current trainer, Bill Mott, but is now trained by Tom Drury, who owns a 16% win percentage in dirty races here at Keeneland, with an average payoff of $14.68. Those numbers go up to 17% and $16.29 when we’re talking sprint races so they more or less match up with our morning line odds. I loved his maiden win at Churchill Downs last November and loved it even more that four runners from that field returned to break their maiden in their next career start.
Best of luck to all our members playing Friday’s races from Aqueduct!