Garrity's Sunday Keeneland Picks include two stakes, the Palisades and the Beaumont, one with a price
The best racing the past few weeks has been at Keeneland, and that trend continues today, as the quality of the races is better there, by a pretty significant margin, than what is available elsewhere on the national simulcasting schedule. So we’ve focused all of our attention on Lexington, Kentucky, where we have three plays on the latter portion of the Keeneland card. We expect fast dirt and firm turf for all three, so let’s go.
Keeneland, Race 6, 3:40 pm ET
Maiden Special Weight, 6 furlongs, Dirt, 3-Year-Olds
A group of ten very classy, 3-year-olds lines up for this maiden race. Seven of them are first-time starters, and we like the looks of one of them: 3-Magic Tap, who has a pedigree to die for (by Tapit, out of a Ghostzapper mare), and who has a morning workout pattern that we like to see, regularly spaced drills with some, but not all, of them fast. The thinking is that regular works develop a young horse’s overall fitness level, while the occasional blowout honing his speed. Magic Tap looks like he’s ready to run at first asking; we will bet him to win at 7/2. The bet: Keeneland, Race 6, $40 to win on 3-Magic Tap.
Keeneland, Race 7, 4:12 pm ET
$250,000 Palisades Stakes, 5 ½ furlongs, Turf, 3-Year-Olds
The Palisades drew a full field of twelve. The pick is 8-No Nay Hudson, who has been mostly a bridesmaid in his career so far, with two seconds and one third in five career starts. That might normally cause us to take a shot against him, even if he looks to possess the most talent in this field, but he simply looks too good compared to his rivals, especially if, as we think is probably the case, he’s improved since he last raced in November. Look for him to prevail by sitting mid-pack early, and rolling late. We will bet him to win at 9/2 odds. The bet: Keeneland, Race 7, $40 to win on 8-No Nay Hudson.
Keeneland, Race 8, 4:44 pm ET
Grade 2 Beaumont Stakes, 7 furlongs, Dirt, 3-Year-Old Fillies
An interesting group of seven 3-year-old fillies lines up for the Beaumont. We are taking a shot with one who should be a good price: 2-She’s on the Rocks, who has run quite well in two career starts, both of which were on the synthetic racing surface at Turfway Park, but who today tries conventional dirt for the first time. We like her partly for the talent she showed in those Turfway races, but mostly because her pedigree and running style suggest that she will be better on dirt than she was on the lint. That makes her a major threat here, and makes her 10-1 morning line price too good to pass up. We will bet her to win. The bet: Keeneland, Race 8, $40 to win on 2-She’s on the Rocks.
That’s all for today. Until the next time, enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.