Racing at Aqueduct.
Racing at Aqueduct.NYRA / Robert Mauhar

God's Tipster's Friday Aqueduct Pick: The 8th is a route for New York-bred maidens

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Thursday’s Race Recap from Aqueduct:

(All Odds U.S.)


Race 2: 5th@ 8.80/1

Race 5: 4th@ 12.50/1

Race 6: 2nd@ 33.25/1

In Race 2, Duckphat lagged well behind a slow early pace and passed tired runners. In Race 5, Starquist made his turf debut and stalked Citizen K. early, made a brief bid entering the stretch but Citizen K. has elevated his game to another level and drew away to an emphatic win. In Race 6, Whenlovetakesover stalked the early pace at 33/1 odds, took the lead turning for home and held off all rivals til a last minute run by 10/1 Mercante upended our upset bid by a neck.

Almost made millions there folks.

It’s Friday! We’re going to take a look at a few races from Aqueduct as well as Keeneland’s Grade 1 Maker’s Mark Mile. Fast and firm conditions with warm, sunny temps in New York with a chance of rain at Keeneland. Let’s get started.

Friday at Aqueduct:

Race 8: Mischief Motion - 2 pts win - BEST BET (US Morning Line Odds: 15/1)

New York bred maiden claimers close out our day racing a mile and a sixteenth. This race took me a while to handicap because there was a lot to unpack but it’s the exact type of race I’ve excelled with over the last few years so I’m letting it roll. We’ve got layoffs, turf debuts, stretch-outs, hot barns, ice cold barns and a field of 12 fillies and mares in the body of this race that are a combined 0 for 69. Mischief Motion is a bit of a muddied up looking runner. Her lone turf start was her debut effort last June at Belmont sprinting 6 furlongs where she finished dead last beaten just about fifteen lengths. On the surface – that effort doesn’t look pretty but digging into her pace numbers we see that after a poor start, she was actually closing fastest of all, running the fastest 1/8th of a mile at the end of the race. On the replay you actually see her gallop out past the field. A field that was much better than anything she’ll face today. Since that effort she’s had 5 starts on the main track – her most recent start being the best - a closing neck loss at 6 1/2 furlongs. Mischief Motion is better bred for turf as second dam was a stakes winner on the grass. Today she returns to the surface she’s better bred for for a super-low profile barn and a hot rider who’s started the meet winning 3 of his first 12 races (25%). I’ll take every bit of 15/1 on Mischief Motion.

Best of luck to all our members playing Friday’s races from around the U.S.!

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