God's Tipster's Friday Gulfstream Park Pick: The 4th is turf MSW with top trainers, Chad Brown horse at price
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Thursday’s Race Recap from Gulfstream:
(All odds US)
Replays for Thursday’s races from Gulfstream can be found here:
Race 1: 2nd@ 4.70/1
Race 3: 1st@ 1.60/1 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Race 8: 6th@ 4.20/1
In Race 1, Mystic Sunrise was taken back to last off a relatively slow early pace and came with a big late run to nab 2nd losing by just 1/2 length. In Race 3, Surprise Payoff shot to the lead and battled Solomons Gold around the racetrack without ever giving an inch, finally winning by a 1/2 length to give us our first winner in the month of March. In Race 8, Game Change was wide and had no punch when asked. I guess Shug McGaughey should work him again tonight so maybe he can get out of first gear next time out 😂.
We’ll stay at Gulfstream for Friday’s races. We’re expecting fast and firm conditions again. Let’s get started!
Race 4: Equal Protection - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 15/1)
A rock-solid group of maiden special weight runners go a mile and a sixteenth on turf here. We’ve got runners from plenty of top barns here that will take money: Pletcher, Brown, Mott and McGaughey are all represented. My selection is Equal Protection who hails from the top turf barn of Chad Brown. He cost $430K so someone saw something they liked and while he is a half to a two time turf winner, his breeding is otherwise unspectacular. My angle here is an angle I’ve used on Chad Brown runners in the past. He’ll put up a runner like this with modest breeding and not much shown on the track yet and win at similar 15/1 odds. He did it with Gina Romantica and Appraise back in August at Saratoga at 15/1 and 11/1 respectively and I give him a big chance to do it again here. Brown still wins at 23% with runners making their turf debut in their third career start and when that start is at a route of ground the win percentage jumps to 33% and the in the money percentage is an impressive 83% ( 5 for 6 ). All the attention will be on his runner shipping in from Tampa who will be hung out from post 12. That one wasn’t overly impressive on debut. It’s a rare occasion where you’ll get double digit odds on a Chad Brown turf maiden and I intend to take full advantage.
Wishing our members the very best of luck wagering on Friday’s races from Gulfstream!