God's Tipster's Sunday Aqueduct Pick: The 9th is a sprint for NY-breds and Tin Pin Alley is playing our song
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Saturday’s Race Recap from Gulfstream:
(All odds US)
Gulfstream Park:
Race 4: 1st@ 0.70/1 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Race 8: 2nd@ 0.90/1
Race 10: 3rd@ 2.20/1
Race 12: 2nd@ 30.20/1
We began the day at Gulfstream with Demurely at 3/5 odds U.S. stalking the early pace and winning off gamely by a hand-ridden 1/2 length in Race 4. In Race 8, I was hoping they’d gun Shesterkin to the lead and try to take them gate to wire but they tried to see if he could rate - which he did but his stablemate Tapit Trice is far better at a route of ground and gobbled him up on the turn. We had to settle for second. In Race 10, Atomically raced in traffic for much of the race but was no match for Red Carpet Ready today as George Arnold had the screws tightened on that one and she powered away. In the Holy Bull - Race 12 - Shadow Dragon lagged behind early and I knew this race was full of fraudulent early-running horses. Most of the field packed it in on the far turn while Shadow Dragon was turning things on. He took a strong run at his stablemate, Rocket Can, but was turned away and we had to settle for 2nd at 30/1.
A first, two seconds and a third place finish from four selections on the day.
I’ll start with a bit of good news for our UK members who like options when betting racing here in the U.S.
Let’s close out our week with a few races on Sunday’s Gulfstream and Aqueduct card. I’ll be honest - I hate today’s Gulfstream card. 9 races with four of them on the turf but with rain in the forecast for Saturday and Sunday I’m not going to bother handicapping in the event they get rained off.
Sunday at Aqueduct:
Race 9: Tin Pan Alley - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 7/2)
Allowance runners bred in New York will close out our week sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs. Based on what I’m seeing from the public handicappers, the betting public is likely to be attracted to Golden Code - trained by Todd Pletcher after running third in the Gotham and eighth in the Wood and now laid off for ten months or so. It’s possible he’ll come back and be best but Pletcher is only 2 for 18 (11%) with runners returning with dirt sprinters at Aqueduct over the last five years with layoffs of 6 months or more. Tin Pan Alley is my selection here. Like our likely favorite Golden Code, Tin Pan Alley returns from a similar layoff after finishing up the track in the Mike Lee as the favorite. The difference for me (aside from the probable odds being higher on TPA) is the fact that using the same parameters, Chad Brown is a scorching hot 10 for 19 for a 53% win percentage with runners returning from a six month layoff or more sprinting on the dirt at Aqueduct. We caught Tin Pan Alley to break his maiden and I know he’s got the talent. This runner offers value at 7/2 odds or higher.
Best of luck to all our members playing Sunday's races from Gulfstream!