God's Tipster's Saturday Fair Grounds and Gulfstream Park Picks: Tapit's Conquest is choice on Lecomte Day
Friday’s Race Recap from Gulfstream:
(All odds US)
Replays for Friday’s races from Gulfstream can be found here at Gulfstream Park (just click the link that says “videos” :
Race 2: 6th@ 4.10/1
Race 4: 7th@ 3.70/1
Race 6: 2nd@ 3.50/1
In Race 2 we had Just Call Ray (bet down to 4/1 off a 8/1 morning line in the U.S.) who dropped back off the early pace and really offered no response when last. We were right to think the favorite was fraudulent but the class drop for Just Call Ray was one that was warranted and he’ll probably need to drop a few more rungs if he’s ever going to contend in another race. In Race 4, Piccadilly wasn’t sent to the lead and much like Just Call Ray in Race 2 offered no real response when asked. All the pressure was on Olympic Runner in Race 6 after two terrible runs in our first two races. Irad Ortiz had him positioned a few lengths off the speed of Megacity and made his move on the turn but was unable to run down that loose leader finishing a game 2nd.
We’re going to take our first trip to the Fair Grounds for Lecomte day. We’ve got plenty of stakes action on tap.
In the past some members mentioned they had a tough time wagering on races from the Fair Grounds with their bookmakers so in the event you can’t get Fair Grounds I’ll offer up some races from Gulfstream Park as well to keep everyone happy.
We’re expecting fast and firm conditions at Gulfstream with rain in the forecast at the Fair Grounds. Let’s get to it!
Saturday at Fair Grounds:
Race 9: Tapit’s Conquest- 2 pts win BEST BET (US Morning Line Odds: 7/2)
Tapit’s Conquest is entered in two races on today’s card but will obviously only run in one of them. He’s our BEST BET selection in whichever race he runs in. Race 9 is an allowance race and Tapit’s Conquest is our selection here. He is cross-entered in Race 14 on today’s card - the Lecomte and if he ends up running there I’ll take him there too. He’s our BEST BET in either race. First time out he ran a game second while hemmed inside a more experienced rival in Powerful while sprinting at Saratoga. Tapit’s typically improve with longer distances and Tapit’s Conquest is no different as in his next start he was taken wide on the first turn and when the rider asked on the far turn he turned on the afterburners and ripped away from the field. This has the look of a serious race horse and I will take every bit of 7/2 odds on him here.
Race 12: Norah G - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 8/1)
This is a rare occasion where I feel like the odds on one of my selections will be higher than the morning line might suggest. The crowd is going to be all over Brad Cox’s runners but to be honest nobody in this field has run well enough to warrant accepting them at short odds. This is a field without a lot of speed and while Norah G has only sprinted to this point, her breeding suggests she should handle the distance. While her sire was primarily a sprinter, having Medaglia d’Oro and Malibu Moon in the bloodlines certainly don’t hurt. She’s already won two races here at the Fair Grounds which is more than anyone else and she runs for a relatively unknown trainer currently winning at 39%. She’s also won 3 of 6 stakes races she’s run in (all Louisiana bred stakes). Maybe the giant barn with all the money will end up winning at short odds but at 8/1 or better against a field devoid of pace I’m willing to take my chances with Norah G to spring the upset.
Race 13: Happy American - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 4/1)
I have a feeling that Zozos will be a heavier favorite in today’s Grade 3 Louisiana Stakes than his 3/1 morning line would indicate. He’s got top connections and loves Fair Grounds. I’m taking a shot to beat him with Happy American though. A year older and ten more races of seasoning and it’s possible Happy American might be hitting the best form of his career right now. Gelded since his last start (an odd move to make after a horse wins their first stakes race), Happy American defeated a few of these last time out. With a fast pace expected I expect to see Happy American running down Zozos in the final yards and that would make this American awfully happy.
Race 14: Tapit’s Conquest - 2 pts win - BEST BET (US Morning Line Odds: 9/2)
The Lecomte is a 1 1/16th race for three-year-olds on the path to the Louisiana Derby which eventually vaults the best from the division to the Kentucky Derby. Tapit’s Conquest is our selection here as well. He is cross-entered in Race 9 on today’s card and if he ends up running there I’ll take him there too. He’s our BEST BET in either race. First time out he ran a game second while hemmed inside a more experienced rival in Powerful while sprinting at Saratoga. Tapit’s typically improve with longer distances and Tapit’s Conquest is no different as in his next start he was taken wide on the first turn and when the rider asked on the far turn he turned on the afterburners and ripped away from the field. This has the look of a serious race horse and I will take every bit of 9/2 odds on him here. If he scratches, his barn mate - Instant Coffee could probably lay down and win this. If they both run it looks like an easy exacta box.
Saturday at Gulfstream:
Race 1: Love Unlimited - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 20/1)
Maiden claimers race a mile on the turf and I tend to favor inside posted runners with speed in these races since the races start on the turn. Love Unlimited was dreadful in her first few starts on turf in 2021 but has picked things up lately since adding lasix. She has a preference to run near the lead and has an aggressive rider. She’s also got two second place finishes from her races at Monmouth Park where she lost by less than a length. I can definitely see a scenario where she takes them start to finish at long odds. Let’s lead off the day with Love Unlimited at Gulfstream.
Race 4: Detroit City - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 2/1)
Starter allowance foes square off on polytrack sprinting 5 furlongs. Detroit City owns the field’s top figure over the surface and owns an abundance of early speed - a plus in these rapid sprint races. Bullet workout says he’s primed and ready for today’s start.
Best of luck to all our members playing Saturday’s races from around the U.S.!