Garrity's Sunday Stakes: 3 races on turf at Aqueduct and Churchill Downs – Tepin, Autumn Days, Commonwealth

Garrity's first post is 2:44 EST.
Racing at Aqueduct.
Racing at Aqueduct.NYRA

We have three plays on this Sunday, the last in November, two at Aqueduct and one at Churchill Downs. It’s an all-turf lineup today, and we expect firm going in all of them, so let’s go.

Aqueduct, Race 6, 2:44 pm ET
$120,000 Tepin Stakes, 1 mile, Turf, 2-Year-Olds

The Tepin drew a field of ten. The turf at Aqueduct has been quite speed-favoring as late, and we are going to try to capitalize on that trend, and to do so with 7-Thirty Thou Kelvin, whose chances we would quickly dismiss on a fair track, but who we think has a good chance, at a good price, here. He has the most natural early speed in the field, and jockey Jose Lezcano surely knows he has to use it, as the only chance Thirty Thou Kelvin has, irrespective of a track bias, is to go right to the front and stay there as long as he can. We will bet him to win at 12-1. The bet: Aqueduct, Race 6, $40 to win on 7-Thirty Thou Kelvin.

Aqueduct, Race 8, 3:44 pm ET
$150,000 Autumn Days Stakes, 6 furlongs, Turf, Fillies & Mares 3 & Up

Eleven go in the Autumn Days. The formula here is the same as in the Tepin: we’re playing speed, speed, and more speed. That’s 7-Mail Order, who has been either on the lead, or within a length of it, in all eight of his career starts, and here appears to have caught a group, and a racing surface, that will play enormously in his favor. Look for Mail Order to go right to the front, and not look back; we will bet him to win at 10-1. The bet: Aqueduct, Race 8, $40 to win on 7-Mail Order.

Churchill Downs, Race 11, 5:56 pm ET

Grade 3 Commonwealth Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Turf, 3-Year-Olds

The group of eleven 3-year-old colts makes the Commonwealth a good betting race. We like 5-Mount Rundle, who has just a maiden win to his credit in five career starts, but who we think is a bit better than that: he has a strong finishing kick, which is always a key asset on the sod, and he should get a chance to show that today, as both the size of this field, and the traits of the horses who comprise it, should favor his stretch-running style. Look for him to be well back early, and rolling late; we will bet him to win at 12-1. The bet: Churchill Downs, Race 11, $40 to win on 5-Mount Rundle.

That’s all for today. Until the next time, enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.

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