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Garrity's Saturday Stakes picks Kathryn Crosby at Del Mar, strong Claiming Crown card at Churchill Downs

First post at 4:33 pm ET.

We have four plays today, three from the terrific Claiming Crown card at Churchill Downs, and a turf stakes at Del Mar. We expect fast dirt and firm turf for all races, so let’s go.

Churchill Downs, Race 8, 4:33 pm ET

Starter Allowance, 6 furlongs, Dirt, 3 & Up

The Claiming Crown Starter’s Express drew a full field of ten. It’s a wide open race, and a terrific one to handicap. It’s also the perfect race to try to find a price, and we think we’ve done that with 10-Thirsty Betrayal, who looks to regain the form he showed earlier in the year. We think he appears poised to do just that, primarily because we think the race shape will favor him: we think the early pace here will be very quick, which will play right into his stalking style. We will bet him to win at 10-1. The bet: Churchill Downs, Race 8, $40 to win on 10-Thirsty Betrayal.

Churchill Downs, Race 9, 5:05 pm ET

Starter Allowance, 7 furlongs, Dirt, 3 & Up

A dozen go in the Claiming Crown Rapid Transit. The pick is 3-First Glimpse, who has been running in longer races, his last a sharp win in a starter allowance at a mile and a sixteenth at Keeneland a month ago. We love the cutback in distance, we like the fact that First Glimpse is in good form, but what seals the deal for us is that he looks like the best finisher in a race where we expect the winner to be coming from off the pace. Look for him to be flying late; we will bet him to win at 12-1. The bet: Churchill Downs, Race 9, $40 to win on 3-First Glimpse

Churchill Downs, Race 10, 5:35 pm ET

Starter Allowance, 1 ⅛ miles, Dirt, 3 & Up

The Claiming Crown Classic drew ten runners. The pick is 10-Ournationonparade, who was last seen winning the Maryland Million Classic at Pimlico on October 22. That was his first start for trainer Jamie Ness, who claimed him in September for $50,000. Ness has a knack for improving horses he claims, so frequently and so dramatically that the minor step forward Ournationonparade took in Maryland was not much of a surprise. We expect an even better effort from him today, which means he is headed to the winner’s circle, and we are headed to the windows. We will bet him to win at 9/2. The bet: Churchill Downs, Race 10, $40 to win on 10-Ournationonparade.

Del Mar, Race 7, 6:30 pm ET

$75,000 Kathryn Crosby Stakes, 1 mile, Turf, 3 & Up

A good field of eight lines up for the Kathryn Crosby Stakes. We are taking a shot with a filly at a big price, 1-Royal Address, who going back to last year has been running competitively, without winning, in shorter races. We think that it’s because she wants more ground, and the mile here should be right up her alley. She comes off a 4th-place finish in her last start that we think was better than it looks, as it was her first start off a layoff, and she still managed to finish only two lengths behind the winner. She should be ready to move forward in her second try off the bench, and that makes her very live, at very tempting 15-1 odds. We will bet her to win. The bet: Del Mar, Race 7, $40 to win on 1-Royal Address.

That’s all for today. Until tomorrow, enjoy the races, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.

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