RT's Thursday Churchill Downs Early Pick 3 Picks: Claimers in first two races, the 3rd is $120K MSW
RT’s Spot Plays
11.10.22
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Early Pick Three Sequence At Churchill
Churchill Downs Race 1 - $40K Claimers
3yo’s going 8.5 furlongs
Going with 1-Maximum Impact (6/1) who, three back, ran at this course in the Bourbon Trail Stakes. Since that time, the connections started dropping his price in an effort to get him to the winners circle. 3-Red Knobs (8/5) set the pace in the Oklahoma Derby last out before giving way. His Churchill record of 6/0-2-3 is not concerning because none of the others have won here either. Will likely be the lone speed unless Arrieta takes a different tact.
Churchill Downs Race 2 - $20K Maiden Claimers
2yo Fillies going six furlongs
This is such a bad lot that I hit the all button and worked backwards. I eliminated 3-Lady Envoy (5/1) who has had three shots and this level and has made zero impact. 6-Ms Haley (6/1) has one race and was claimed from it for $30K. Today is her second chance yet being tagged at $20K? Pass. 11-Prana (10/1) has poor works and 0% first time trainer. 9-Esser Fund (15/1) marginal works for debut and 0% first time trainer. 1-Bogey Free (12/1) trainer has a 2% win rate with 2yo’s and poor works after debut race. I will be adding 16-Lucksme (6/1) if she gets in.
I’ll take the rest in the hope of catching a long shot
Churchill Downs Race 3 - $120K Maiden Special
3yo’s↑ going nine panels on turf
6-Sweet Lady Ivanka (7/2) has the best last Equibase number getting a 92 when stretching out 1/2 furlong last time, signaling more distance is in her wheelhouse. Today she adds blinkers, is third off the layoff and just clocked a 1:00.8 work. 2-Sunroof (7/2) exits the G3 Rubicon Valley View Stakes after shipping in from the west coast. Evidently the ownership of this Sky Kingdom filly were disappointed and changed barns to a newcomer. She gets Lasix after going without for three months, so that blast should help. 7-Tiffany’s Mo (3/1) has two tries on turf this fall and showed improvement. This Uncle Mo filly ran a big 88 number on Churchill turf in early June and a repeat of that will get her there first.
Leg 1:
1, 3
Leg 2:
2, 4, 5, 7, 8, 10, 12
Leg 3:
2, 6, 7
Total: $21
Ticket for the addition of 16 in the 2nd race will cost $24