God's Tipster's Saturday Belmont at Aqueduct Picks: 4 races on a stakes-heavy card with the Kelso, Bold Ruler
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Friday’s Race Recap from Belmont at Aqueduct:
(All odds US)
Race replays for yesterday’s races from Belmont at Aqueduct can be found here:
Belmont at Aqueduct:
Race 1: 2nd@ 3.40/1
Race 8: 2nd@ 0.50/1
In Race 1, Winning Connection, who ran so well from off the pace in his debut, was smartly put on to battle for the lead from his rail post to try to take advantage of that positioning. He disputed the pace from inside of Churro, was asked along the rail on the turn, took the lead after doing all of the dirty work on the front end then fought on gamely in the stretch while being out-gamed for the win by favored Going in Style by 1/2 length finishing 11 1/2 lengths clear of his next closest rival. In Race 8, Tax Implications was taken well behind a slow early pace and appeared to be bearing in as she closed. She was gaining good ground but was unable to catch stable mate Implicated.
Let’s take a look at some races from Belmont at Aqueduct where we’re expecting chilly temperatures beneath sunny skies with a fast main track and a firm turf course. Let’s get to it!
Belmont at Aqueduct:
Race 3: Perceived - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 5/1)
Allowance runners race a mile here and this is a race full of horses who like to go to the lead and tire. Triple Elvis carry’s that flag for the Chad Brown barn and will probably lead these early but Winit, Hilpodrome, Shipsational and Three Jokers have all proven themselves a bit untrustworthy. Perceived owns the most wins in this field with five. All five of those wins have come at today’s one mile distance and four of them have come over today’s Aqueduct surface. There should be plenty of pace to set up his closing kick and this one seems a fair bet at 5/1 odds or higher.
Race 5: Morello - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 4/1)
The Grade 2 Kelso Handicap now serves as a prep for the Cigar Mile in December. It had previously served as a springboard to the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile. This year it drew a very evenly matched albeit Grade 3 ‘looking’ field of runners. Baby Yoda will be the heavy favorite but I have trouble trusting him at a short price. He ran a lofty figure last time out but faced no competition that day. Morello is a runner I never loved when they started him on the Derby trail. He had big supporters out there but I always felt him a perfect miler which he proved in the Gotham and then the wheels fell off as he was favored in the Wood Memorial at a longer distance. Like Baby Yoda, Morello didn’t face much competition in his comeback race at Laurel but did it well within himself and was never asked for serious run. I think this race stamps Morello as a contender in the Cigar Mile and Baby Yoda as a pretender once again.
Race 8: Glass Ceiling - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 5/2)
The 7 furlong Pumpkin Pie is next up on this stakes-heavy Aqueduct race card. Fillies and mares line up to do battle and Boston Post Road is 9/5 on the morning line and will be closer to 6/5 by post time. She and Glass Ceiling have similar speed figures and have separated themselves from the rest of the field in that regard. Short price aside, the problem with Boston Post Road is that she’s 0 for 2 in stakes races at odds of under 2/1 both times. She’s also never tried today’s surface or distance (although she does have a win over a weak field at a mile) . Glass Ceiling on the other hand will be a far better price with three stakes wins under her belt (including two Grade 3’s). She’s also got 5 wins at today’s distance and four wins at Aqueduct. To me she has a significant edge over a horse who’ll undoubtedly be favored.
Race 9: Meraas - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 5/1)
The 6 furlong Bold Ruler Stakes closes out our day at Aqueduct and this one drew a competitive field of 10. Last time out we selected Meraas, racing for the first time in the U.S. and for the first time in seven months and although he ran third, I was impressed with that race. After out-sprinting Foolish Ghost, one of the fastest sprinters on the New York grounds to the lead he set a scorching pace beneath a rider who was also making his U.S. debut. He finished third behind Elite Power who would go onto win the Grade 2 Vosburgh in his next start and Hoist the Gold who just finished a bang-up second in the Perryville behind Gunite at Keeneland last weekend. Today Meraas gets a jockey change to Flavien Prat and doesn’t have to deal with that same pace battle. He’s been working up a storm and might just prove too tough to reel in.
Best of luck to all our members playing Saturday’s races from Aqueduct!