Garrity's Sunday Keeneland Picks: 5 different ways to bet the Late Pick 4, which includes the Dowager Stakes
With the national stakes schedule very light today, and with us craving some action, we are going to attack the late Pick 4 at Keeneland. It’s a good sequence, and we think it presents the opportunity for a good return.
We will be playing the sequence by identifying our top and secondary contenders in each race, and utilizing the multiple-ticket approach. We want to hit the bet if our opinions are exactly right, of course, but this method allows us to cash if we are mostly, but not entirely, correct.
We expect fast dirt and firm turf for all races, so let’s go.
Keeneland, Race 6, 3:40 pm ET
Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ furlongs, Dirt, 2-Year-Olds
The 6th at Keeneland is the first race in the late Pick 4 sequence, and it is a wide open race with a big field that lacks a clear favorite. We will be spreading wide, with two main picks and a half-dozen backups, and hoping for a winner at a big price.
A: 3-Speakinofthedevil, 4-Cravensworth
B: 6-More than Five, 7-Penny’s Prospect, 8-Time the Market, 10-Zed, 11-The Motto, 12-Bolt Forty Five
Keeneland, Race 7, 4:12 pm ET
Grade 3 Dowager Stakes, 1 ½ miles, Turf, Fillies & Mares 3 & Up
The Dowager came up a pretty strong race, with a good group of eleven fillies and mares lining up to run a mile and a half on the turf. We are using 5-Temple City Terror, who looks the best of the lot, as our sole A choice, and using 3-Core Values and 7-Beside Herself, as backups.
A: 5-Temple City Terror
B: 3-Core Values, 7-Beside Herself
Keeneland, Race 8, 4:44 pm ET
Allowance, 1 ⅛ miles, Dirt, Fillies & Mares 3 & Up
Ten go in this first-level allowance for females. It’s a good handicapping race, and our two top selections come out of the same race: 6-Take Care and 9-Bella Runner both look to rebound after getting cooked chasing a very fast early pace last out; we think both are going to improve significantly today. The backups are 4-Music Street, who comes off a strong maiden win at Churchill Downs a month ago; and 8-Ice Orchid, who looks for a better result today after a disastrous trip in her last, when she managed to finish third despite a load of traffic trouble.
A: 6-Take Care, 9-Bella Runner
B: 4-Music Street, 8-Ice Orchid
Keeneland, Race 9, 5:16 pm ET
Allowance, 5 ½ furlongs, Turf, 3 & Up
This turf sprint drew a dozen entrants. We like 10-Evan Sing, and we like him quite a bit: his last effort was pretty poor, but it was in a weirdly run race, and we are drawing a line through it. A return to the form that he showed prior to that start makes him strictly the one to beat. We are including three backups, 4-Agent Peter Graves, 7-Cloudy, and 8-Call Me Midnight.
A: 10-Evan Sing
B: 4-Agent Peter Graves, 7-Cloudy, 8-Call Me Midnight
We will play the Pick 4 with the following five tickets:
Ticket 1 (AAAA): 3,4 with 5 with 6,9 with 10
Ticket 2: (BAAA): 6,7,8,10,11,12 with 5 with 6,9 with 10
Ticket 3: (ABAA): 3,4 with 3,7 with 6,9 with 10
Ticket 4: (AABA): 3,4 with 5 with 4,8 with 10
Ticket 5: (AAAB): 3,4 with 5 with 6,9 with 4,7,8
This allows us to cash if four top selections win, or with any combination of three As and one B.
We will play Ticket 1 at a $5 base wager level, which will cost $20. Tickets 2-5 will be played at a $1 base level; these tickets will cost $12, $8, $4, and $12, respectively for a total investment of $56.
That’s all for today. Until the next time, enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.