RT's Saturday Keeneland Pick: Race 9 is the G1 Claiborne Breeders' Futurity with a big field running for $600K

RT’s Spot Plays

10.08.22

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Keeneland R9|Post Time: 5:14 PM ET

The Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders' Futurity

Dirt 1.25 Miles|2YO|Purse: $600K

I am not liking progeny of Violence or Bolt d’Oro in this situation, so 7-Forte (3/1), 5-Instant Coffee (5/1), and 10-Lost Ark (6/1) are out. Looking at our database, winners of 2yo male G1 stakes have scored an average last out Equibase number of 88 and after narrowing down the field, and excluding the aforementioned sires, I am inclined to go with 15-Carmel Road (5/1), if he gets in. With two races and an 88 last out to break his maiden in his second try, his works have been stellar, and Bob Baffert has a huge motivation to get a winner in Kentucky. 2-Loggins (4/1) looks like a solid pick with his massive only race win by 8.5 lengths and a big ol’ 108 Equibase score for it; yet big numbers like that rarely come back near as strong in their next race. In the event we do not see Carmel Road today, I am going with 1-Frosted Departure (10/1) as I was in attendance last time for his 9.5 length impressive win last out at Churchill and it was fabulous.