RT's Friday Keeneland Fillies Stakes Picks: G2 Jessamine on turf, the G1 Alcibiades on dirt, both 1 1/4 miles

RT’s Spot Plays

10.01.22

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Keeneland R8|Post Time: 4:44 PM ET

The Grade 2 Jessamine Stakes

Turf 1.25 Miles|2YO Fillies|Purse: $350K

Of the twelve entries today, only four have run a two turn race. This does not preclude any of the others effective at it, yet it merely gives the four a minor edge. Given the speed in this race, I am going with closer 1-Sabalenka (10/1) who just broke her maiden at one mile in her second start. That race was at Kentucky Downs, where the one mile configuration is a long, sweeping turn after a minor turn/dip. In that race, she fought brilliantly in the stretch to best Safeen by a nose after coming five wide then swinging to the thicket on the rail. America’s fifth leading rider, Jose Ortiz is confident enough in her ability to return to the irons. Look for the pace to melt and Sabalenka comes rolling.

Keeneland R9|Post Time: 5:16 PM ET

The Grade 1 Alcibiades Stakes

Dirt 1.25 Miles|2YO Fillies|Purse: $500K

Fourteen BC hopefuls go in this, and I am going to take a shot on 8-Infinite Diamond (10/1) as she appears to be the lone speed. She is coming off a monster 15-length victory and scorched a :59 work six days ago. Hot jockey Florent Geroux, who ended up with a 26% win rate at Churchill, is in the irons today.