Garrity's Sunday Stakes picks the Frizette at Belmont at Big A, the Zenyatta and Chillingworth at Santa Anita
We’re into October now, which means Sundays will be dominated by football, but we think that in between the fumbles and concussions, there will surely be enough time to sneak in a few flutters on a couple of stakes races, three in all, one in dreary New York, and two in sunny California. We expect fast and firm conditions out West, and a sloppy track at Aqueduct. Let’s go.
Aqueduct, Race 8, 4:41 pm ET
Grade 1 Frizette Stakes, 1 mile, Dirt, 2-Year-Old Fillies
The forecast in New York today is downright miserable, cold, wet and raw, and the Frizette, which drew seven entrants, will be run on a sloppy track. While we might have been inclined to try to beat favored 4-Chocolate Gelato on a dry track, in the slop, we can’t go against her: She has run faster, going by speed figures, than any of her rivals, and she has a good wet-track pedigree. We think Chocolate Gelato splashes home to victory in the Frizette, and will bet her to win at 9/5 odds. The bet: Aqueduct, Race 8, $40 to win on 4-Chocolate Gelato.
Santa Anita Park, Race 4, 5:38 pm ET
Grade 2 Zenyatta Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Dirt, Fillies & Mares 3 & Up
Five go in the Zenyatta. Partly because of the short field, and partly because of the way that the Santa Anita dirt has been playing, we think speed is going to be king, and that makes the pick 5-Samurai Charm, who just missed last out, in a mile stakes at Del Mar, but who here should get a dream trip, setting the pace while running moderate fractions, and doing so on a track that has been very kind to front-runners. We think Samurai Charm wires this group, and will bet her to win at 2-1. The bet: Santa Anita, Race 4, $40 to win on 5-Samurai Charm.
Santa Anita Park, Race 6, 6:38 pm ET
Grade 3 Chillingworth Stakes, 6 ½ furlongs, Dirt, Fillies & Mares 3 & Up
This is a Grade 3 dirt sprint, and there is one thing that is highly unusual about the half dozen older fillies and mares who make up the field: there is virtually no speed among them. These kinds of races usually attract at least a couple of speedballs, horses capable of running very swift early fractions, but this one hasn’t. 3-Ce Ce, who is the 3/5 morning line favorite, is an example: she’s very good, but she is a come-from-behinder. Maybe she is simply so overwhelmingly superior that she will prevail anyway – that’s what she happened when she won this race last year – but we think the lack of speed in the field just might present an opportunity to bet a horse at a big price.
We are taking a shot with 6-My Destiny. She is almost a cinch to get the early lead, and we think that she will do so quite easily, partly because she has so much more natural speed than her rivals, and partly because she will be lightly regarded, and the riders of the other horses will let her go. And we think My Destiny might just get brave when loose on an easy lead. At 30-1, we think that merits a play, and will bet her to win. The bet: Santa Anita, Race 6,$40 to win on 6-My Destiny.
That’s all for today. Until tomorrow, enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.,