God's Tipster's Saturday Picks include Breeder's Cup prep races at Aqueduct, Life Is Good, and Churchill Downs
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Friday’s Race Recap from Belmont at Aqueduct:
(All odds US)
Replays for yesterday’s races from Belmont at Aqueduct can be found here:
Belmont at Aqueduct:
Race 3: 5th@ 2.05/1
Race 6: 7th@ 19.40/1
Race 9: 10th@ 9.40/1
What a finish in Race 3! 4 horse photo. Unfortunately Succulent wasn’t part of the fun. Lagging well back she only rallied mildly late with the cutback to a mile. In Race 6, Follow the Fed stalked the early pace on debut, dropped back at the top of the stretch and came on again rallying mildly late as a competing runner kept him flanked in. In Race 9, Musical Romance looked loaded turning for home but looks can be deceiving as she faded in the drive.
It’s October and as we begin to ease into the end of 2022 we still have tons of great racing to look forward to. This weekend we have preps for the Breeder’s Cup across the U.S. We’ll focus on racing from Churchill Downs where we’re expecting fast conditions and we’ll also pick two races from Belmont at Aqueduct where it’s supposed to rain all day.
Let’s get to the action!
Belmont at Aqueduct:
Race 7: Life is Good - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 1/9)
The Grade 1 Woodward looks like a mismatch on paper and it will probably be that way on the racetrack. Life is Good prepares for his showdown with Flightline in the Breeder’s Cup Classic with a prep here. This race came up light and that’s mostly because nobody wants to face Life is Good. Should be the controlling speed and it’s his race to win.
Race 10: Blazing Sevens - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 8/1)
The Grade 1 Champagne for two year olds is a major prep for the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile. The majority of the runners in this field like to hear their hooves rattle on the front end. Blazing Sevens made an impressive debut at Saratoga then finished a distant third in the Grade 1 Hopeful on closing day at Saratoga. His Timeform figures do seem to indicate he’s got the best closing kick and this may be an opportunity to finally get decent odds on a runner trained by Chad Brown.
Churchill Downs:
Race 5: Magnificent Mile - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 5/1)
Two year old maidens go a mile and a sixteenth. There are a few in here that ran well first out and will take money. My money is on Magnificent Mile for trainer Rudy Brisset who has outstanding numbers with runners making their second career start at Churchill downs stretching from a sprint to a route. He’s won with 5 of his 9 runners for a 56% win percentage who fit that profile over the last five years and has hit the board with 7 of those 9 runners (78%). This one showed speed last time out and the $800k price tag means there are expectations here. Gate to wire threat.
Race 8: Elusive Target - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 12/1)
Allowance runners go a mile and an eighth in this tough little race. Elusive Target races for trainer Paulo Lobo who’s winning at a robust 22% this year. This looks like either a private purchase or just a plain old trainer change from Steve Asmussen. Either way, Lobo wins at 23% with runners coming off similar layoffs and he may get overlooked in this spot as Mott, Casse, Cox and Pletcher all have runners in here. His most recent speed figure stacks up perfectly with this field and he has every right to improve second time off a layoff.
Race 9: Senor Buscador - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 12/1)
The Grade 3 Ack Ack serves as a prep for the Breeder’s Cup Dirt Mile. Speaker’s Corner will break from the rail and is the 1/1 morning line favorite but he’s a loser of three straight (albeit against some killers) and I’d rather take my chances with someone who’ll offer more value. Senor Buscador actually defeated Speaker’s Corner last time out and is 12/1 on today’s morning line. He stretches out to a distance that should play favorably to his running style. The only ingredient he’s going to require is someone to press Speaker’s Corner early. There are a few in here with enough speed to do it.
Race 10: Art Collector - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 2/1)
The Grade 2 Lukas Classic is Churchill Down’s prep for the Breeder’s Cup Classic. We have a field of 6 runners which includes Kentucky Derby winner, Rich Strike and Grade One winners, Hot Rod Charlie, Happy Saver and Art Collector. Art Collector is a winner of 7 of 8 races at the mile and an eighth distance and 10 of 19 overall. He looks to have the most early speed nearest the rail. While other trainers of favorites don’t have a great record of winning here at Churchill Downs, Bill Mott has won 23% of his dirt graded stakes here over the last five years with an average payoff of $27.80. No chance we’ll get a price that high on Art Collector but the stats speak for themselves.
Race 11: One Time Mo - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 8/1)
We’ll close out our day with a six furlong maiden race. None of the first time starters appeal based on trainer stats but One Time Mo ran impressively in her debut last spring at Keeneland breaking slowly and rallying strongly late to grab second behind a next out winner. Trainer Neil Pessin has a 19% win percentage (6 for 31) with runners off similar layoffs on dirt making their second start in sprint races with an average payoff of $14.67. DEFINITE value here at 8/1 odds or better.
As always, we wish our members the very best of luck playing Saturday’s races from Belmont at Aqueduct!