God's Tipster's Wednesday Delaware Park Pick: The 1st is route with fraudulent favorite, first-time starter

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In an effort to maximize monthly profits for my members I’ve done my best to cut back on wagers that haven’t produced much of an ROI over the last few years. This is one of the changes I’ve made to tighten things up a bit and hopefully you’ve already begun to see the payoff in your bank accounts. I’ll continue to adjust as time moves on. We’ve only got one selection for the day on Wednesday . We’re expecting sunny skies and warm temperatures in Delaware but I don’t trust the Delaware turf course after all the rain-off’s we've had so I have only handicapped dirt races.

Wednesday at Delaware Park:

Race 1: Mo Bills - 1 pt Win (US Morning Line Odds: 3/1)

We are starting our week with a first time starter going a route of ground, and some members might think I bumped my head over the weekend making a pick like this. Aside from beating my head against the wall after finishing second and third all weekend, I had no other head bumps so doctors cleared me to continue handicapping. One handicapping angle I enjoy employing is finding fraudulent favorites and exposing them and in Race 1 at Delaware on Wednesday, I’m not in love with the 3/5 morning line favorite, Essaouria, who’s making her dirt debut and route debut after being assigned a 68 speed figure in a turf sprint debut. I thought the race looked better on paper for her than it did in reality as she got a dream run up the rail as the speed faded and really had no excuse not to win. She actually got passed in the lane and appeared to be flattening out late. She didn’t really take much play that day so why would I want 3/5 odds on a stretch out? I wish there were better options from the pool of runners who have raced before but there aren’t. I’m siding with first time starter Mo Bills, who has all sorts of distance breeding on the dam’s side of her pedigree. Mike Stidham is a capable trainer when it comes to runners debuting at a route of ground (16% wins) and this one fetched $350k at auction so the hope is that there’s some quality here.

 Best of luck to everyone playing Wednesday’s races from Delaware Park!