God's Tipster's Saturday Saratoga Picks: Five races including the Jockey Club Gold Cup, betting no favorites
Friday’s Race Recap from Saratoga:
(All odds US)
Race replays for yesterday’s races from Saratoga can be found here:
Race 2: 3rd@ 0.70/1
Race 4: 3rd@ 1.70/1
Race 6: 1st@ 1.50/1 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Race 9: 6th@ 2.50/1
Our day got off to a stumbling start as Mail Order was slow out of the gates and rushed up into a quick early pace. Had nothing left in the drive and checked in third. In Race 4, Bustin Bay raced between horses near the back of the pack before rallying mildly for third place. We finally got on the board for September when Security Code stalked the early pace and ran down an 11/1 first time starter for the win. In Race 9, Angitude raced near the back of the pack never mounting much of a rally, checking in 6th.
A win and two third place finishes have us licking our wounds and we’ve got one final beautiful weekend of racing for us at Saratoga with a STACKED card of 13 races featuring the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, the Grade 2 Flower Bowl and the Grade 3 Saranac. Here’s what we’ve got:
** We will have BONUS coverage for Monday’s Labor Day card from Saratoga! **
Saturday at Saratoga:
Race 1: Fly Right - 1 pt Win (US Morning Line Odds: 12/1)
Two-year-old maidens race a mile and a sixteenth on the inner turf. Half the field are first time starters and of the other five runners only one has actually raced on the weeds. I’m siding with a first timer named Fly Right in this spot. Fly Right comes from the low profile barn of Leah Gyarmati with hot rider Javier Castellano aboard. This runner is out of the dam Fly By, who raced for these same connections and won her debut. He’s also got a full sister named Sail By, who runs for these same connections and who won her debut race at 28/1 odds before becoming a Grade 2 winner in her fourth career start. Precocity appears to be in the bloodlines and I always like seeing an owner keeping young runners with the same trainer as their dam/siblings because you’d think the trainer would already be comfortable with any idiosyncrasies the horse has. Barn has won with 2 of 12 runners debuting on turf with an average payoff of $64.50. Sign me up for some of those odds!
Race 2: Powerful - 2 pts Win - (BEST BET) (US Morning Line Odds: 2/1)
Maiden two-year-olds sprint 7 furlongs on the main track and once again we have a field of nine with four first time starters. I’m siding with Powerful who came within a head of breaking his maiden in his debut effort. Today he gets a bit of a rider upgrade to Jose Ortiz and that 75 speed figure he earned looms large with this group. Trainer Steve Asmussen has had a terrific meet winning at 26% and the five works since this one’s debut effort should have him primed and ready for his most POWERFUL effort.
Race 3: Aussie Pride - 1 pt Win (US Morning Line Odds: 6/1)
Allowance runners go a mile here and we’ve got a few speeds and a few closers. Our 2/1 morning line favorite is Up to the Mark for Todd Pletcher who won on a sloppy track in his debut. This one’s second dam was the great sprinter Capote Belle, who excelled at shorter distances though and between that and the presence of other speed in here I’m siding with Aussie Pride here. This $4.1 Million dollar purchase might be considered by some a disappointment thus far although he’s only four races into his career and trainer Bill Mott tends to take time with his runners. After two turf starts Aussie Pride made his dirt debut at Keeneland and won impressively. Rallying into a moderate pace and drawing off to win quite easily. In his first start against winners he wasn’t quite up to the task but he faced much better that day and was stretching out to 1 1/8 miles. Today he reunites with jockey Joel Rosario, who rode him in his maiden win, and he will have all kinds of pace to run into. Rebound time!
Race 7: Meraas - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 6/1)
This one’s an allowance optional claiming event and I’m intrigued by the outside runner Meraas, who’s returning from a February layoff. After spending the first ten races of his career racing on turf in England with moderate success he was transferred to a new trainer, shipped to the United Arab Emirates and raced on dirt. His new connections were immediately rewarded with an emphatic 4 3/4 length win first time over the dirt over 10 rivals and he validated that effort with a Grade 3 win over 8 other rivals. The Timeform speed figures he put up in those two dirt starts look like the type that could easily contend with these. He’s been working up an absolute storm and debuts in this country for connections that can sneak one in under the radar.
Race 11: Keepmeinmind - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 12/1)
Today’s feature race is the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup at the Classic distance of 1 1/4 miles. I’ll start by saying that I think our 2/1 morning line favorite Olympiad is a tired horse. He’s raced nonstop against top competition for a full year with no break and his Whitney effort was his worst race in that year of racing. Americanrevolution is our second choice on the morning line but he’s never been this far and has losses against Olympiad and Dynamic One already this year to avenge. I’m giving a shot to Keepmeinmind who made his debut for Todd Pletcher last time out in an allowance race where he stalked the pace and won nicely. He should get an honest pace to close into today and has all kinds of back class facing the likes of Essential Quality, Midnight Bourbon and Medina Spirit last year. He’s reportedly been working very well and I give him a big chance to upset this race today.
I hope all our members have an especially profitable Saturday at Saratoga!