Nest, winning the Demoiselle, is God's Tipster's pick in the Alabama.
Nest, winning the Demoiselle, is God's Tipster's pick in the Alabama.NYRA

God's Tipster's Saturday Saratoga Picks: 5 races including the Grade 2 Lake Placid, Grade 1 Alabama, with Nest

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God's Tipster is the Betting God's US Racing expert.
God's Tipster is the Betting God's US Racing expert.Betting Gods

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Friday’s Race Recap from Saratoga:

(All odds US)

Race replays for yesterday’s races from Saratoga can be found here:

Saratoga:

Race 1: 3rd@ 1.85/1

Race 8: 4th@ 2.70/1

Race 10: 8th@ 7.60/1

In Race 1, Strong Light saved ground at the tail of the field, came under coaxing half a mile from home and tipped two then three wide through the far turn, spun just off the inside to upper stretch and offered a mild bid for third. In Race 8, once Misty Veil didn’t make the lead and was inexplicably wrangled back to last, the pace complexion changed completely and Bonny South never had enough pace to run into checking in fourth. In Race 10, Cadillac Candy never got a call finishing well back.

We’re headed back to Saratoga for Grade 1 Alabama Day for three year old fillies at a mile and a quarter. We’re expecting fast and firm conditions. Let’s get to the action!

Saturday at Saratoga:

Race 3: Risk Profile - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 6/1)

Allowance runners sprint 6 furlongs on the main track in this one. Our two morning line favorites, Peaceful Waters and Favorite Outlaw, are both die-hard speed types so I’m looking for a closer and that’s what Risk Profile is. Risk Profile was claimed for $40k by his current connections and had a good little campaign late last year into early spring where his form started to tail off. Trainer, Linda Rice gave him about five months off and he comes into this with a few snappy workouts indicating readiness. I like the fact that they’re keeping this runner in allowance company instead of dropping him for a claiming tag and his running style would be well suited for this race.

Race 4: My Cara Mia Mine - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 3/1)

Turf sprinters line up for this maiden race for fillies and mares bred in New York. This is another race full of speed types and My Cara Mia Mine has the strongest closing speed figures in the field. Last time out, My Cara Mia Mine came off a February layoff to finish a sharp fourth at 31/1 odds under jockey, Luis Cardenas. Today he upgrades to Javier Castellano in the jockey department which is a major upgrade when it comes to win percentages. This one showed nice development in her last start and should only get better second start off a layoff.

Race 8: Consumer Spending - 2 pts win - BEST BET (US Morning Line Odds: 7/2)

Three year old fillies take to the turf in the 1 1/16 mile Grade 2 Lake Placid. With the Moonlight is our morning line favorite and deserves to be on the basis of her sharp win in the Saratoga Oaks Invitational. That race was much longer though and at this distance I’m siding with Consumer Spending, the only runner in the field to have won more than once at today’s distance. Trainer Chad Brown ran this one last time out in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks and she was charging hard at the end and missed catching today’s favorite, With the Moonlight by a diminishing head. She’s got a win over the Saratoga turf and three wins at this distance. 7/2 odds represent great value here.

Race 10: Nest - 2 pts win (US Morning Line Odds: 1/2)

Today’s feature event is the Grade 1 Alabama at a mile and a quarter on the main track for three year old fillies. Nest dominated her competition in the CCA Oaks here on July 23 and her main competition today is the same horse she trounced last time out by 12 lengths. She also ran well in the Belmont Stakes and that tells us that a little more distance shouldn’t be a problem. You won’t get rich playing her but it’s always fun to bet a winner.

Race 11: Barnegat Light - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 12/1)

Claiming runners close out our day going a mile and a sixteenth on the inner turf. This course has been very speed favoring these last few weeks and Barnegat Light (who’s named for a town in New Jersey) looks like the main speed here. She races for a low profile barn that’s 18% on the year for a sneaky turf rider. Gate to wire threat at long odds.

Best of luck to everyone playing Saturday’s races from Saratoga!

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