RT's Saturday Churchill Downs Picks: The 1st, 4th and 6th races are all $120K MSWs for 2yos

RT’s Spot Plays

08.13.22

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Churchill Downs R1|Post Time: 12:45 pm ET

Dirt 6 Furlongs|2YO Filles MSW |Purse: $120K

Can a $2,700 filly beat multiple six figure girls today? Yes.

Ten young fillies line up and my choice today will be 5-Kentucky Reign (4/1), the $2,700 filly by Cinco Charlie out of the Big Brown dam Dark Woman. She just ran out of the 1 post position on a muddy track at Ellis two weeks ago, ran greenly into the stretch before finally switching leads, re-gathering herself to hang on for second. That was a great learning lesson from the standpoint of having to face runners from behind then leading, then chasing the bit before regrouping. Look for a much stronger effort today.

Churchill Downs R4|Sat Aug 13|Post Time: 2:27 PM ET

Dirt 6 Furlongs|2YO Fillies MSW|Purse: $120K

Based on her last three workouts, I am fading second ML favorite 6-Black Forest (7/2) for 7-Key Of Life (3/1) and 4-Revenue Train (8/1) in a trifecta with 7-4/6-7-4/all for $16. Given the pedigrees and works of the entries in this race, my strong lean is to the Lord Nelson (20% sire 2yo fillies) first time starter, Revenue Train, who has clocked excellent a.m. efforts.

Churchill Downs R6|Sat Aug 13|Post Time: 3:35 PM ET

Dirt 6 Furlongs|2YO’s MSW|Purse: $120K

I am going with the Army Mule progeny, 10-Stormin Army (5/1) in his second start after putting up a brisk 80 Equibase score on debut here in Late June. He has put up three works since, one in the mud that was, meh, and a 1:00.4, showing his form.