God's Tipster's Saturday Saratoga Picks: 6 races, 3 Chad Brown runners, with Regal Glory in the FourStarDave
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Friday’s Race Recap from Saratoga:
(All odds US)
Replays for yesterday’s races from Saratoga can be found here:
Race 4: 1st@ 4.10/1 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Race 7: SCRATCH
Our streak of profitable days continued as Tapple Cider, perfectly ridden by Dylan Davis stalked the early pace, switched out at the top of the stretch and wore down Latest Edition for the WIN. In Race 7, our selection, Frippet, was an early scratch.
We only had one pick today after the scratch but we made it count, winning at 4/1.
We’ve got racing from Saratoga for Saturday. We’re expecting sunny skies with mild temperatures along with fast and firm conditions in upstate New York. Let’s get started.
Saturday at Saratoga:
Race 1: Full Coverage - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 7/2)
Two year old maidens take to the inner turf to kick off our Saturday. In the field of 8 only two have started and only one has a start on the grass. The rest are all first time starters and of that bunch, Full Coverage appears the best bred of the group. Sired by the great Kitten’s Joy, he’s got plenty of turf breeding on top but his dam is Onus, a winner of 5 of 10 turf starts for these same connections including two stakes races. Onus has already thrown one stakes placed runner for these connections and jockey Joel Rosario complements this well bred and well connected runner well.
Race 2: Mount Athos - 2 pts win (US Morning Line Odds: 8/5)
Claimers sprint 6 furlongs in Race 2 and this race is chock-full of early-speed types who have trouble staying when pressured for the early lead. Not only does Mount Athos have the best recent form with an 87 speed figure, put up in his most recent start, but he looks to have the race falling into his lap as the main stalker/closer in this field. Trainer Rudy Brisset is already a winner of 2 of 4 starts here at Saratoga and this runner has won both starts at 6 furlongs. Three works since his most recent start say he’s ready to fire.
Race 7: Ohana Honor - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 10/1)
A group of regally bred maidens is next on the docket for us and of the eleven runners entered, all but one is a first time starter. The lone “experienced” member of this group ran well to finish second on debut and went fast early but really came home slowly late so I’m looking elsewhere. Ohana Honor may get overlooked in this spot as he’s on the “also eligible” list and will only draw into the race if another runner scratches. Ohana is the second debut runner we’re selecting on the day for the Shug McGaughey barn and he’s been working well. A $430k purchase, this one went for 22 1/2 times the stud fee for Honor Code who’s progeny only win 7% of the time, but the dam, Spacy Tracy was a winner of 6 of 12 starts and ran second 3 times in her career. Even more to the point, the dam has thrown 5 runners, three of which won at first asking, three of which are Stakes winners and four are Stakes placed. Javier Castellano has had a stellar Saratoga meet thus far winning at 22% and I have a sneaky feeling this one will get overlooked. Great value at 10/1 or better.
Race 8: Portfolio Company - 2 pts win - BEST BET (US Morning Line Odds: 2/1)
Allowance optional claimers race a mile on the inner turf. Super-trainer Chad Brown who’s winning at 25% for the meet so far has the morning line favorite here and the 2/1 odds offer value. Portfolio Company will probably go off closer to 6/5 here in the States as he’s simply been keeping better company than the rest of these. After winning his debut at Saratoga last year, he finished second in Graded Stakes races before finishing a better-than-it-looks eighth in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Turf. He returned in the American Turf where he faced much better than he’ll see today and in his most recent start he finished behind Fort Washington and Quality G. who would be 1/1 in this spot. The class, the connections, the setup. It’s Portfolio Company for us in the eighth race.
Race 9: Leading Contender - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 8/1)
Leading Contender is the second of three consecutive runners trained by Chad Brown we’re picking for Saturday. This is another blue-blooded maiden race but this time it’s for three year olds and up. Our morning line favorites are first time starters from the Todd Pletcher barn and the second choice is a half brother to Breeder’s Cup Juvenile winner Good Magic. Leading Contender enters with this field’s highest Tomlinson figure so we know he’s bred for the seven furlong distance. Sired by Gun Runner who’s winning with a sparkling 17% of his debut runners, this one’s the dam’s first foal to make it to the races. Workouts have been consistently fast and this barn has been red hot all summer. If we can sneak 8/1 odds on this one it offers more than fair value.
Race 10: Regal Glory - 2 pts win (US Morning Line Odds: 6/5)
Today’s feature race is the Grade 1 FourStarDave at a Mile on turf, which drew a field of five salty turf runners. Regal Glory might be my favorite horse in training at the moment. Undefeated this year and a winner of her last four starts, Regal Glory has been beating up on the fillies and mares and has seemingly gotten better with age. Chad Brown has brought her along nicely as a six year old and is having her best year yet. Last time out she defeated two runners who would both return to win stakes races in their next career start, including In Italian who won the Grade 1 Diana right here at Saratoga in track record time. Today will be her first time taking on the boys and although there’s some speed signed on, she’s proven she can rate and win. Three for three at Saratoga and a winner of seven of twelve starts at the distance, Regal Glory wins a class edge over her rivals today.
Best of luck to all our members playing Saturday’s races from Saratoga!