RT's Opening Day Saratoga Picks: 2yo fillies run in the 2nd, a $105K MSW, and the 9th, the G3 Schuylerville
RT’s Spot Plays
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Saratoga R2|Post Time: 1:39 pm ET
Dirt 5 1/2 Furlongs|2YO fillies MSW|Purse: $105K
The first 2yo maiden special of the year at The Spa and under normal circumstances I would go with the Godolphin bred and owned 2-Spelterini (5/1). Looking over their website, it is a rarity for them to debut 2yo’s in this country and it would be an opportunity at a price. However, her sire is 8% winners in this situation and trainer Bill Mott is only 10%. Add in the poor works in the morning and it is seemingly evident that they will bring her along and get a race in her. I am going to pass on the favorite in lieu of the second ML choice, 6-Chocolate Gelato (7/5), a Practical Joke filly trained by Todd Pletcher, who is not known to push his 2yo’s in the mornings. So, since she just clicked off a 1:00.9 work; that is an eye opener and worthy of my bet. The outside post will be a big help, and I look for her to go gate to wire on this group.
Saratoga R9|Post Time: 5:39 pm ET
The Grade 3 Schuylerville Stakes
Dirt 6 Furlongs|2YO fillies|Purse: $175K
Here are they are sire/dam stats using stakes 2yo’s, fillies, and # of starts:
There is a disclaimer here for 1-Just Cindy, she has a sister named Statuette who won her second race, a Group 2 at Curragh in Ireland.
1-Just Cindy (5/2) went odds on at Churchill Downs on Jun 17 and scored easily in a closing fashion by 2.25. There seems to be a growing trend after a horse races for the first time, is to give them a :12er work right before their last work and then take it easy on their last. She had a :48.6 and then a :51.4, so that last work may not be as concerning
2-Sweet Harmony (15/1) this filly is not to be overlooked at a great price. She is game, giving up the lead and then regaining it to win going away in her bow. From the hot barn of John Terranova, 46% the last 30 days, and reading the tea leaves, how did they get Johnny V to ride her if something was not up?
3-Adora (6/1) one of three Mark Casse trainees entered in this, this $450K Fasig Saratoga sale filly won her bow at Woodbine and moves to a dirt surface. Her sire, Into Mischief is 0% winners with the surface change and of the 2yo’s Casse has sent off with today’s parameters, he is 1/4 with only the winner only reaching an 88 Equibase number, which will not be sufficient today.
4-Vedareo (8/1) heavily leaning towards taking this Daredevil filly given Robert Reid is 27% with second time 2yo’s, she went off as the favorite in her last race, she gets Joel Rosario, has had two :12er works and seemingly, Parx shippers do well at NYRA tracks. She is 1/2 sister to multiple graded stakes winner Shedaresthedevil and graded stakes placed Esplanande.
5-Janis Joplin (12/1) second Casse entrant, this California Chrome filly gets a boost in jockey with Flavien Prat in the irons. 1/2 sister to multiple graded stakes placed Cilla, she is the only maiden in this and based on her last effort, will remain that way today.
6-Me And My Shadow (7/2) the last Casse entrant, she moves from Woodbine to after winner her debut. He sire, Violence, is a very strong 40% winner with second time 2yo’s moving from all weather to dirt. Winning her debut in fine nick, while putting up a 94 Equibase number, our database shows that 35% of the time, horses who exit with an Equibase number of 90-100, win 29% of the time. Incredibly, in her debut, she missed the Woodbine five furlong record by 1/2 second, which was set by a 3yo male. Her last two works have been pedestrian, yet this speedy filly is going to be a force today.
7-Motown Mischief (20/1) she has way too much improvement to overcome to be a factor. Pass.
8-Musicmansandy (12/1) she too has way too much improvement to overcome to be a factor. Pass.
9-Summer Promise (3/1) having spent almost every day at Churchill this past meet, I had an opportunity to chat with D. Wayne Lukas on a few occasions. To say I am a fan is an understatement, and personal feelings aside, I found him to be honest about his horses. So, when this article appeared, I paid close attention. Evidently her debut win took nothing out of her as she just did a bullet work in :46 flat before shipping to Saratoga.
I am taking Summer Promise to win, and including Sweet Harmony, Just Cindy with Me And My Shadow in exotics.