RT's Wednesday Colonial Downs Pick: The 7th is a $60K MSW turf sprint for 2yos, and RT likes a longshot

RT’s Spot Plays

07.13.22

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Colonial Downs R7|Post Time: 4:33 pm ET

Turf 5 1/2 Furlongs|2YO fillies MSW |Purse: $60K

A dozen 2yo’s head to the turf for this seventh race and four have a race under their belt, of which I am going to select one in lieu of a first time starter. 12-Danse Macabre (4/1) is by first crop sire Army Mule (Friesan Fire) who has a race under her belt at Churchill Downs before shipping to Colonial. She scored a 72 Equibase number in her bow while chasing the big time filly and Schuylerville Stakes entered, Summer Promise. Out of the Blame mare Sylphide, who went 16/3-3-0 on the turf, her lates :38 work is not one to rattle the bones or spend the money. Pass. 7-Kazillion (8/1) debuted at Keeneland’s turf course, and she put up a 68 Equibase number after getting pounced by twelve lengths. Her poor works since have proven she did not come out of that well. Pass. As much as I would like to bet on 1-Validikova (6/1), the 5% dirt to turf record of Michael Stidham stands out too much. So, I am going with 44% second start trainer Bernardo Lopez and 10-Lady Azteca (15/1). The angle of sire Sharp Azteca’s 44% win rate with second time starters and 33% win rate in turf sprints is alluring. Her 31 Equibase number on debut is not, yet you cannot help to think that this trainer does that to get a good price next out. She is out of the seventh leading turf sire in North America, Medaglia d’Oro mare La Vie Ross.

This should be an interesting race.

Happy Hunting!