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RT's Monday Colonial Downs Picks: It's Opening Day in Virginia, with four $125K stakes races

RT's first post is 2:13 pm EDT.

RT’s Spot Plays

07.11.22

Follow Me @RtsSpot

Stakes Races on Opening Day at Colonial Downs

Colonial Downs R2|Post Time: 2:13 pm ET

Outer Turf 5 1/2 Furlongs|3yo+ Tyson Gilpin Stakes|Purse: $125K

The pickings are slim given the layoffs, dirt to turf runners, and only one horse in this achieving over the Equibase par of 85 lately, I am going with the first time starter 5-Chambeau (10/1). She is a fully mature five year old mare by Japanese bred and Breeders Cup Mile champion Karakontie, whose progeny are 22% with first turf and of his top 20 progeny, they are 62% for turf first time starters. She has been working well in the mornings, so if she gets out of the gate correctly this first time, she will wire the field.

Colonial Downs R4|Post Time: 3:09 pm ET

Inner Turf 1 1/16 Miles|3yo+ Brookmeade Stakes|Purse: $125K

I am going to take 1-Mo Clare’s (7/2) to beat the heavy 9/5 favorite 4-Urban Fairytale. A five year old mare by Uncle Mo, she came off a 284 day respite and ran her best Equibase number of 95, just missing by a neck after leading the field in :46.9 & 1:10 before being caught late. She switches to the hot barn of Chris Block (30% last 30 days) and recently completed a :47.4 breeze over the track. Look for new jock Jareth Loveberry to either press and close, or have her settle into slower fractions on the lead.

Colonial Downs R6|Post Time: 4:05 pm ET

Outer Turf 5 1/2 Furlongs|3yo+ Punch Line Stakes|Purse: $125K

Michael Trombetta is way behind the eight ball with 4-Embolden (4/1) who was claimed for $35K and has only returned $16K after three races. The five year old gray by The Factor had a bad break last out, getting checked three times on the backside, and as the betting favorite, he closed to within 4.5 lengths. Victor Carrasco gets his second attempt with her today and last out was a good learning lesson for them both. Two freshenings since and the others in this race are just not appealing enough for my money.

Colonial Downs R8|Post Time: 5:01 pm ET

Inner Turf 1 Mile|3yo+ Edward P Evans Stakes|Purse: $125K

The time for a single in your horizontal wager is this race and the heavy chalk and graded stakes winner, 3-Largent (1/1). With a 13/6-4-0 record for $504K, he is the class of this race and has put up much stronger numbers than the rest. 1-Passion Play (3/1) will see tote board action, yet I do not see where a one mile workout that is rated handily at 1:43 shows good form.

Happy Hunting!

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