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RT's July 4 Churchill Downs Picks: Two $175K 2yo stakes races – bashford Manor, Debutante – on closing day

RT's first post is 3:18 pm EDT.

RT’s Spot Plays

07.04.22

Follow Me @RtsSpot

This has ben a fun meet at Churchill. I will miss it as I have been darn near every day. After all, when you are over 60, it’s $3 to get in, I live five minutes away and have a handicap placard LOL.

Churchill Downs R6|Mon Jul 04|Post Time: 3:18 PM ET

Dirt 6 Furlongs|2YO Bashford Manor Stakes 175K|Purse: $175K

1-Gulfport (4/5) Uncle Mo/Unbridled’s Secret

Will be bet to hades because of that huge win in his bow and the 96 Equibase number. Checking the database, all horses with one race and a score of over 90 are a respectable 34% winner next out. Interestingly, debuting horses that run an over 90 score take a drop in number next out 66% of the time. The only Uncle Mo 2yo that Asmussen trained who won on debut, then entered a stakes was Memorable, who went second in the betting and ran 5th by 9 lengths. The only Uncle Mo 2yo’s to win a stakes after winning their debut were Bast and Dream Tree, both trained by Mr. Suspicious, Bob Baffert. Pass

2-Owen’s Leap (8/1) Bolt D’oro/Bandini

This is my choice as Thom Amoss has been on fire with 2yo’s this meet getting five wins in six tries. In all but on instance, Edgar Morales has ridden and gets the mount today. Out of the dam Defy Gravity, a graded stakes entrant went 25/5-1-6 in her lifetime for $173K, her progeny are 39% winners.

3-Andthewinneris (5/1) Oscar Performance/Scat Daddy

Won his debut at Keeneland on turf and recently blistered a bullet four furlongs on June 4th at CD in :46.4. This colt is the only winner from first crop sire Oscar Performance (15-8-0-1 for $2.3M on turf) and the dam, Run Like The Boss, ran 6 of her 11 starts on the turf for one win and $49K. Evidently the connections did not want to move him once the turf course at Churchill was deemed unusable, so this is the stakes they decided to run him in. Use underneath.

4-Mr. Gordy (12/1) Mo Town/Congrats

2yo’s running in their third race and their last was a stakes race are a 0% prop. Pass

5-Stayhonor Goodside (6/1) Honor Code/Tethra

Sire Honor Code ran in the G2 Champagne at Belmont in his second outing and just missed by a neck, improving from an 89 score to a 102. If this colt repeats such a feat, he will take it. Mark Casse 24% given the defined parameters of this race, yet his last two five furlong works were pedestrian. Win Contender.

6-Simply Super (7/2) Super Saver/Jump Start

This is the same situation as Mr. Gordy. Pass

Churchill Downs R7|Mon Jul 04|Post Time: 3:50 PM ET

Dirt 6 Furlongs|2YO fillies Debutante Stakes 175K|Purse: $175K

1-Crackalacking (7/2) McCracken/Malibu Moon

She scored a five length win in her bow and has returned to a marginal work tab. Also, Ferrin Peterson, as of yesterday, has only one win this meet. Pass

2-Eyes Of Gold (20/1) Goldencents/Smoke Warning

Sire Goldencents progeny have but one winner in thirteen based on today’s conditions. Her two works afterwards have been slow. Pass

3-Wonder Wheel (7/2) Into Mischief/Tiz Wonderful

In a father versus son duel, dad Mark Casse will leg up Tyler Gaffalione on this Into Mischief filly. 2yo Into Mischief fillies are 25% winners in their second race, it being a stakes outing with only four of the twenty four returnees going above today’s par of 90. Casse/Gaffalione just 9% together and this filly may up that number given her :46.4 workout ten days ago signaling her condition. Use in exotics

4-Sabra Tuff (8/1) Cross Traffic/Cactus Ridge

This will be Dallas Stewarts’ third 2yo filly to go in a stakes in her second race and he is 1/2 and had Sequist not smacked the gate, Stewart might be batting 1.000. Out of the dam Cactus Ridge, she is half-sister to Group 1 winner Thegreatcollection. Sire Cross Traffic 25% and her two :48 freshenings show she is in good form. Exotic and win contender.

5- Les Bon Temps (5/2) Laoban/Tapizar

The second half of the father versus son duel, son Mark Casse 23% with second time starting 2yo’s, returns with this Laoban filly out of the Tapizar mare, Winsanity, who never raced, and this is her first foal. She is 1/2 sister to graded stakes placed Ava’s Grace and her sire, Laoban, is a smashing 60% with 2yo fillies in their second race, which happens to be stakes competition. She won her bow in the slop by a neck and personally, I have preference for horses winning in a fight rather than running away with it, because you know they will give you grit when they run. My top choice.

6-Frango Electrico (30/1) Tourist/Candy Ride

Winning her second outing with a 52 Equibase figure will not be enough. Pass.

7-Empire Of My Own (9/5) Classic Empire

1/2 sister to Cogburn, who just missed by 3/4ths length to Lightening Larry in the G3 Chick Lang and Pimlico, she just broke her maiden at second ask at CD on June 10th. Why she is a 9/5 favorite is a mystery given her speed figures. Out of a Saintly Look mare, In A Jif, who had a very respectable campaign going 18/-7-1-2 for

$203K, I am still not backing 3/29 with 2yo’s trainer Steve Asmussen.

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