RT's Saturday Churchill Downs Picks: the 1st and 3rd are $120K 2yo maiden sprints with Bolt d'Oro progeny

RT’s Spot Plays

07.02.22

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The first and third races at Churchill Downs are for 2yo maidens. Both run at six furlongs, and both have a $120K purse.

Race 1 - we will likely see 2-Hallow Point (4/1) take a substantial amount of money due to his sire. He is by the leading second crop sire Gun Runner and out of the Louisville First dam by graded stakes winner Girolamo. Louisville First was a turf runner going 10/2-1-2 for $142K. Steve Asmussen trains him, and I have been fading the trainer all meet (3/29 w/2yo's thus far) and will this race, too. I am also fading ML fave 5-Boxster (7/2) by multiple G1 stakes winner West Coast, a Bob Baffert trained colt, who has had one progeny win to date. It's indicative how he came out of the race with his two works after - a :51.4 & a :49.4. Pass. Norm Casse is struggling with 9-Cigarette Boat (4/1) getting out of the gate, so the extra distance may play into his favor. He has two races under his belt and according to our database, third race 2yo's are 19% winners, putting him above the norm. As normal, I am taking a shot on a price with Mitch Murrill riding his fourth Bolt d'Oro offspring, 11-Mr. Bingo (8/1), who has been working well for this debut. Murrill has won once on Bolts N Rainbows at 3/1 odds and just missed by 3/4ths lengths at 14/1 on John Grey.

Race 3 - 3-Confidence Game (12/1) has been crushing it in the mornings for 22% wining sire Candy Ride and 9% winning first time 2yo trainer Keith Desormeaux. I'll use him in exotics. 9-Capacity (20/1), 2-Easy Big Boy (5/1), and 11-Macho Villa (5/1) all exit the same race in which the winner, Gulfport, will be seen in Monday's $175K Bashford Manor Stakes. I'll pass on those three as well as 5-Mabuhay (5/1) who debuted against Andthewinnneris, who is also entered in Monday's stakes race. For this race, I am coming right back to the combo of Murrill and Bolt d'Oro and taking 10-Nak Nak Bolt, who finished 6th on debut with a 71 Equibase number

Happy Hunting!