God's Tipster's Saturday Belmont and Churchill Downs Picks: 9 races, with Life Is Good, Charge It, Aloha West

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Friday’s Race Recap from Belmont Park:

(All odds US)

Replays for yesterday’s races from Belmont Park can be found here:

Belmont Park:

Race 3: 4th@ 2.30/1

Race 5: 1st@ 11.30/1 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

Race 7: 5th@ 3.60/1

In Race 3, No Code had the run of the race behind two speed horses but never mounted a rally finishing 4th. In Race 5, our first time starter selection, Oxymore blasted from the gate set a fast pace and kept going finishing the six furlongs in a sparkling 1:07.84 at odds of 11/1. In Race 7, Don’t Wait Up wasn’t worth waiting up for as he checked in fifth.

With just under two weeks til Saratoga opens, we’ll head back to Belmont Park for some Saturday Stakes action. The John Nerud features a spectacular showdown between Life Is Good and Speaker’s Corner while the Dwyer Stakes features the return of Charge It, last seen in the Kentucky Derby.

Because of the abundance of low-priced horses at Belmont, I’ve included some selections from the Stakes race card at Churchill Downs for those of you whose bookmakers make wagering there available.

Saturday at Belmont Park:

Race 1: Fly High - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 5/2)

Maiden two year old fillies sprint 5 1/2 furlongs here and none of these fillies have run yet but I’m bullish on Fly High for a few reasons. First, she’s sired by top new sire Gun Runner - who’s won with 16 of 63 two year old first time starters for a crazy high win percentage of 25%. Top trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey Jose Ortiz will lead this one to post. Worked a furlong in 10 1/5th nicely before selling for $320k at the Fasig Tipton sale at Gulfstream.

Race 3: Lucky Brody - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 3/5)

Maiden claimers go a mile and taking 3/5 on a maiden claimer might be an open invitation to enter the poor house but Lucky Brody’s form towers over his foes. One runner in the field has hit a speed figure of 54 once in their career while lucky Brody has met or exceeded a 64 speed figure not once or twice but six times, including his four most recent starts.

Race 4: Life Is Good - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 1/2)

What can you say about Life Is Good who’ll be 1/2 in this field that includes Speaker’s Corner. Those two appear to be the only runners in this field that can win. The last time Life Is Good navigated 7 furlongs, he went toe to toe with top sprinter Jackie’s Warrior in the race of the year last year. Speaker’s Corner is a nice horse but his form reminds me of many in the field Life Is Good defeated in the Breeder’s Cup Dirt Mile last November. You won’t get rich playing him but he looks like the likeliest winner - gate to wire.

Race 5: Sosua Summer - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 4/1)

Maiden runners go a mile and a sixteenth on turf and while many will gravitate to the $2 million dollar runner to his inside, I prefer Sosua Summer who has raced 7 times already has run hard each time. Sosua Summer has a new trainer in Bill Mott from a much lower profile barn that had been running him in Stakes races as a maiden. He ran competitively in those races finishing fifth and fourth to some decent grass runners - Main Event and Coinage. There’s no telling what the first time starters will do here but at least we know what we’ll get from Sosua Summer.

Race 8: Charge It - 2 pts win - BEST BET (US Morning Line Odds: 4/5)

The Grade 3 Dwyer is a one mile race for two year olds. Charge It exits the Kentucky Derby while the rest of these are exiting maiden races and non-graded stakes races. Trainer Todd Pletcher isn’t the type to rush a horse along but he’s been high on this one all along after an emphatic maiden score, he entered him in the Florida Derby and almost won the whole thing finishing second to White Abarrio. Today he faces no such competition and while 4/5 odds doesn’t sound all that appealing, especially after a day full of favorites, it's better to win money than lose it.

Saturday at Churchill Downs:

Race 2: Necker Island - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 4/1)

Allowance runners go five and a half furlongs and this drew a tough field of runners including several who have run in Grade 1 company before. Necker Island was a Kentucky Derby starter in 2020 but has found a new home sprinting and has been coming along nicely for trainer Chris Hartman. He gets Lasix back on today and this five time winner at Churchill Downs should get the right stalking trip off the speed here. Mitch Murrell will need to navigate a trip off the rail but 4/1 odds are more than fair here.

Race 4: Romance Novel - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 5/1)

Two year old maidens go seven furlongs here and Romance Novel is a runner who took money on debut for Dallas Stewart, a trainer who knows how to win here in Kentucky with a first time starter. She didn’t win that day but came with a nice late run finishing second fastest in the field of eleven. She should have a similar trip off the speed today and will most certainly benefit from the experience she gained in that race.

Race 9: Kneedeepinsnow - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 8/1)

The Kelly’s Landing Overnight stakes is at 6 1/2 furlongs on the main track and drew a hard knocking group of sprinters including the winner of last year’s Breeder’s Cup Sprint - Aloha West. That one should vie for favoritism with Bango but Kneedeepinsnow deserves some respect here as his speed figures stack up well with these. As a matter of fact, he owns the field’s top all-time speed figure at this 6 1/2 furlong distance. He also owns a win over the surface and appears he’ll have the controlling speed nearest the rail.

Race 10: Olympiad - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 5/2)

The Grade 2 Stephen Foster drew a Grade 1 caliber field this year. I landed on Olympiad, a horse whom I’ve tried (and failed) to beat the last three times he’s run. If you can’t beat ‘em, join em! Olympiad has been ultra impressive since January taking down stakes races at Fair Grounds and here at Churchill Downs. Last time out he was passed in the stretch and appeared defeated but came roaring back to defeat Grade 1 winner Happy Saver. That race produced a next out winner in Fulsome and propelled Happy Saver to a strong second place finish behind Flightline in the Grade 1 Metropolitan Mile. With Flightline being untested past a mile, Olympiad is the king of the Classic division until I can't find a chink in his armor.

Best of luck to everyone playing Saturday’s races from Belmont Park!