Time Limit races today in the Dancin' Renee at Belmont.
Time Limit races today in the Dancin' Renee at Belmont.NYRA

Garrity's Sunday Stakes picks races at Monmouth Park and Belmont, and a Churchill Downs allowance sprint

Garrity's first post is 3:05 pm EDT.

Two stakes and an allowance, at Monmouth and Belmont Parks and Churchill Downs, respectively, make up our Sunday slate of Thoroughbred action. We expect fast dirt and firm turf in all three, so let’s go.

Monmouth Park, Race 7, 3:05 pm ET
$100,000 Tale of the Cat Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Turf, 3-Year-Olds

The Tale of the Cat, a turf stakes for 3-year-olds, drew a field of eight. With a couple of them looking like speed types, we think the race is going to set up for a closer, and the one we like the most is 3-Ohtwoohthreefive, who comes off a bad effort, but one we are willing to excuse, as he last ran in the Grade 2 Pennsylvania Mile at Penn National, a race in which he was both outclassed and asked to run on a soft turf course that he clearly did not like. He gets massive class relief here, and will get the firm turf he favors; that, combined with the fact that we think the race shape will favor his stretch-running style, makes him an excellent play at generous 6-1 odds. We will bet him to win. The bet: Monmouth Park, Race 7, $40 to win on 3-Ohtwoohthreefive.

Belmont Park, Race 8, 4:40 pm ET

$100,000 Dancin Renee Stakes, 6 furlongs, Dirt, New York-bred Fillies & Mares 4 & Up

A field of ten state-bred females lines up for the Dancin Renee at Belmont. We’re against favored 7-Bank Sting, who has excellent form, but who is likely to be overbet, and whose best races have been at longer distances. We favor 6-Time Limit, who has hit the board six times in seven races at 6 furlongs, and whose abundant early speed should allow her to work out a good trip here. We dislike the notion of wagering “value” – we think every winner, irrespective of price, has value – but think that Time Limit has a better chance to win this race than Bank Sting, and to do so at a better price than the favorite. We will bet Time Limit to win at 4-1. The bet: Belmont Park, Race 8, $40 to win on 6-Time Limit.

Churchill Downs, Race 8, 4:22 pm ET

Allowance, 6 furlongs, Dirt, Fillies & Mares 3 & Up

A field of eight lines up for this first-level allowance dirt sprint at Churchill Downs. We like the looks of 4-Mercy Warren, who cuts back to a sprint after running pretty well in a mile race on June 3. She has enough speed to stay reasonably close to what should be a pretty quick early pace, and the stamina she developed going longer in her last should serve Mercy Warren well, allowing her to finish strongly when the pacesetters tire late. We will bet her to win at 6-1. The bet: Churchill Downs, Race 8, $40 to win on 4-Mercy Warren.

That’s all for today. Until the next time, enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.

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