RT's Thursday Churchill Downs Picks: The 3rd is 2yo maiden claimer, the 5th is 2yo $120K maiden special weight
RT’s Spot Plays
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Churchill Downs R3|Thu Jun 23|Post Time: 5:58 pm ET
Dirt 5 Furlongs|2YOMaiden Claiming|Purse: $58K
According to our archives, 2yo first time starters in mcl races are 34/394 or 8%. 2yo’s with two races dropping from msw to mcl are 6/43 or 14%. Neither of these are great trends, so looking at the workouts and trends for trainers/sires, 2-Specializin (5/2) was the only entry I found of interest. She just put up a :47.4 from the gate and her sire, Girvin, is fifth in first crop sires with a 1/5 record. I am going to fade this horse for three reasons. 1) her trainer is 9% with first time 2yo’s, 2) her work of :47.4 is noteworthy, yet when she worked at five furlongs, she ran greater than a :12er, connoting dropping off after four or four and a half furlongs, and 3) like Baytown Get It On two days ago, who had multiple msw races before dropping and winning, 5-Thatshowsheerolls (12/1) is in a similar position.
Churchill Downs R5|Thu Jun 23|Post Time: 6:56 pm ET
Dirt 5 Furlongs|2YOMd Sp Wt|Purse: $120K
Can lightning strike twice for Chris Hartman and Mitch Murrill? Four days ago, Hartman debuted Bolts N Rainbows, a Bolt d’Oro colt, at the same course and distance and Mitch Murrill rated him perfectly to take over late and win going away. Today, this pair have 2-Nak Nak Bolt (12/1), a colt out of the Tapizar mare Sara’s Girl and this is her first foal. His works have been just okay, so there is little interest from me. 6-Tulsan (4/1): In the past five years, Into Mischief foals, debuted and trained by Steve Asmussen, are 12%. That’s 5/42. When you modify that to male 2yo’s in msw races, he's 33%, so this puts this guy in the mix. He has had only four works, so it is tough to gauge. 12-Arman (9/2) is another Bolt d’Oro colt who has been working well for Simon Callahan, a 23% 2yo debut winner. I am going with the $230K Twirling Candy trainee for Eddie Kenneally, 3-Fight Fiercely (5/1), who has had three sub :12er works in a row in the lead up. The sire is 26% in this situation and the dam’s only other foal won his debut by almost three lengths.