RT's Friday Churchill Downs Picks: The 4th and 7th are both $120K maiden special weights for 2yos
RT’s Spot Plays
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Churchill Downs R4|Fri Jun 17|Post Time: 2:13 PM ET
Dirt 5 1/2 Furlongs|2YO Fillies Md Sp Wt 120k|Purse: $120K
2-Just An Angel (3/1) by first crop sire Justify (2/6), 5-Spirit And Fire (5/2) by first crop site Bolt d'Oro (4/9) and 3-Dot Marie (15/1) by first crop sire Army Mule (2/4).
Asmussen has the Justify filly and he has been someone to fade the entire meet at CD, going 3/19 w/2yo's, 0/4 w/2yo fillies this meet, 12/66 in sprints and 3/41 in routes. She has only three posted works and they are pedestrian at best. The Bolt d'Oro filly is trained by Pletcher, who shines in this type of race, getting 21% over the last 5 years. She has been working great getting :47.8 from the gate recently. Her dam has one foal that is a speed horse, and his sire was as well hist first few races. We are supposed to get rain, so we will see how the speed holds if that's the case. Dot Marie has been working subpar, yet her dam's three other foals have run decent first races with one getting the win.
9-Towhead (2/1) ran well on debut just missing by a neck in the slop, garnering an 81 Equibase score. According to our database, horses debuting to an 80-96 score, are 14% winners next time; add in the fact that she worked a paltry :51.8 last week, I will fade her as I like to see 1st time runners who lost, return eager to run and blast their workouts; as the case of Riccio on 6.16 Del 4th. Ran a tight 2nd on debut then worked a :59.6., won the next race by 7.5 lengths
I am going to go with the Bolt d'Oro filly trained by Todd Pletcher
Churchill Downs R7|Fri Jun 17|Post Time: 3:50 PM ET
Dirt 5 1/2 Furlongs|2YO Md Sp Wt 120k|Purse: $120K
1-Corningstone (5/1) is by Kantharos, a strong 18% sire for 2yo first starting fillies. She has worked well for Kenny McPeek (9%) with a :48 flat on June 9 out of the gate and a :47.6 on 5/22. 6-Just Cindy (6/1) is another filly by Justify who is trained by Eddie Kenneally, a 13% first time 2yo wining trainer. Her last four furlong work of :47.2 most impressive, as her other works. Look for her to get on or near the lead, given her two gate works of :47.2 and :36. Jockey Rafael Bejarano 0/6 on 2yo’s this meet. 9-American Apple (4/1) by American Pharoah, went off third in the betting on debut where she was squeezed at the start, and never gained ground after that. Her sire is a healthy 18% given today’s parameters. The third leading first crop sire so far this year, Good Magic, has two in this race, 7-Araya (10/1) and 8-Just Like Magic (7/2). Araya ships in from Indy where she has had two races, both dull efforts. Just Like Magic is trained by 22% first timer Tom Amoss and just ripped a :46.8 from the gate on June 10. Her works have all been at Keeneland, which is a faster track, so this a misnomer, as are her odds. I am going with the $250K September Keeneland Yearling Sales filly 4-Champagne Calling (10/1) who just blistered a 1:00 gate work at CD. She is the only first time starter to work five furlongs, and that work may shadow her sire’s (Empire Maker) running style of pressing before romping late.